Politics And Current Events
Politics And Current Events
Boebert gonna lose?
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Politics And Current Events
That would be glorious.Boebert gonna lose?
Politics And Current Events
Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - right?)
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Politics And Current Events
MSNBC just called it for Shapiro.
Politics And Current Events
Aka nobody knows and betting odds are nonsense.Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - right?)
Politics And Current Events
Election Betting Odds FAQAka nobody knows and betting odds are nonsense.Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - right?)
Why trust these odds?
Studies find that political prediction (betting) markets tend to be better at predicting elections than polls. Some reasons:
- Bettors take into account important factors besides polls. In 2020, for example, the virus, mail-ins, and "shy voters" shook things up in unpredictable ways.
- Unlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are.
- People involved in the event might trade before news breaks publicly
- The "wisdom of crowds".
Politics And Current Events
Better than polls is not a very high bar.
Politics And Current Events
Fetterman is gonna win it looks like. Big surprise there imo
Politics And Current Events
But absent NYT "needle", this is the best system we have - immediate aggregation of prevalent sentiment in real time, and in order to speak, one has to put real money where his/her mouth is. What's better than that? (I just wish US Govt did not kill Intrade.com - that was by far the best market in history.)Better than polls is not a very high bar.
Politics And Current Events
Was just thinking that. They haven't even started counting most of the mail-in ballots.Fetterman is gonna win it looks like. Big surprise there imo
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Politics And Current Events
Peyton Manning is the current betting favorite to be the next head coach of the Colts
Politics And Current Events
Mastriano loses. That's the big highlight for me, imo.
Politics And Current Events
Was just thinking that. They haven't even started counting most of the mail-in ballots.Fetterman is gonna win it looks like. Big surprise there imo
Apparently out-performing Biden's numbers so far, at least in Allegheny
Politics And Current Events
What a bunch of commies in Western PA these says. Sad.
Politics And Current Events
Also of interest:
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Politics And Current Events
JD Vance projected to win in Ohio.
Lame.
Lame.
Politics And Current Events
Funny oddity in prediction markets now: point estimate 51-49 Republicans. Chances of controlling the Senate: 65% Democrats...
(which is completely rational given the small relative chance of Rs winning both GA and NV, despite being current favorites in both races).
(which is completely rational given the small relative chance of Rs winning both GA and NV, despite being current favorites in both races).
Politics And Current Events
Ohio is a lost cause.JD Vance projected to win in Ohio.
Lame.
Politics And Current Events
Hate to see it
Politics And Current Events
Lindsey might actually have to testify in GA?
Politics And Current Events
Yes, he lost his appeal.Lindsey might actually have to testify in GA?
Politics And Current Events
Georgia likely going to a runoff.