Politics And Current Events

[willeyeam]

Boebert gonna lose?

[skullman80]

Boebert gonna lose?

That would be glorious.

[faftorial]

[Tomas]

Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - right?)

[skullman80]

MSNBC just called it for Shapiro.

[nocera]

Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - right?)

Aka nobody knows and betting odds are nonsense.

[Tomas]

Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - right?)

Aka nobody knows and betting odds are nonsense.

Election Betting Odds FAQ

Why trust these odds?
Studies find that political prediction (betting) markets tend to be better at predicting elections than polls. Some reasons:
- Bettors take into account important factors besides polls. In 2020, for example, the virus, mail-ins, and "shy voters" shook things up in unpredictable ways.
- Unlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are.
- People involved in the event might trade before news breaks publicly
- The "wisdom of crowds".

[dodint]

Better than polls is not a very high bar.

[willeyeam]

Fetterman is gonna win it looks like. Big surprise there imo

[Tomas]

Better than polls is not a very high bar.

But absent NYT "needle", this is the best system we have - immediate aggregation of prevalent sentiment in real time, and in order to speak, one has to put real money where his/her mouth is. What's better than that? (I just wish US Govt did not kill Intrade.com - that was by far the best market in history.)

[dodint]

Fetterman is gonna win it looks like. Big surprise there imo

Was just thinking that. They haven't even started counting most of the mail-in ballots.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

Peyton Manning is the current betting favorite to be the next head coach of the Colts

[Morkle]

Mastriano loses. That's the big highlight for me, imo.

[MR25]

Fetterman is gonna win it looks like. Big surprise there imo

Was just thinking that. They haven't even started counting most of the mail-in ballots.

Apparently out-performing Biden's numbers so far, at least in Allegheny

[faftorial]

What a bunch of commies in Western PA these says. Sad.

[MR25]

Also of interest:

[willeyeam]

[AuthorTony]

JD Vance projected to win in Ohio.

Lame.

[Tomas]

Funny oddity in prediction markets now: point estimate 51-49 Republicans. Chances of controlling the Senate: 65% Democrats...
(which is completely rational given the small relative chance of Rs winning both GA and NV, despite being current favorites in both races).

[nocera]

JD Vance projected to win in Ohio.

Lame.

Ohio is a lost cause.

[willeyeam]

Hate to see it

[Morkle]

Lindsey might actually have to testify in GA?

[Morkle]

[faftorial]

Lindsey might actually have to testify in GA?

Yes, he lost his appeal.

[nocera]

Georgia likely going to a runoff.