Weather Thread

[blackjack68]

Guys at the plow yard were talking about a major storm next weekend. $$$

[shafnutz05]

Shad Dinardo whats this about a late week storm? Early reports showing 3-5 Saturday then 5-8 into Sunday morning in WV/Western PA.

There is still a lot of stuff that is in play, and the modeling is still six days out. That said, there is definitely strong signaling for a storm next weekend. People on Facebook are dumbly posting one model run as if it's gospel, so don't read too much into that. It's going to be all about where the low pressure tracks. If it tracks too close to the coastline or even on shore, areas like western PA and the Apps are going to get a bunch of snow:



That's really all you need to know at this point. Some of the models have this system tracking way west up through the Apps, which would result in mostly rain for a lot of PA. It's going to come down to who is on the cold side of the storm, and there is a lot of uncertainty six days out. It's going to be all about how much the blocking Arctic high up north eases to either suppress this storm to the south or let it curl up inland.

[Viva la Ben]

Snowmageddon is coming.

[Dickie Dunn]

**** snow.

[nocera]

[CBear3]

@shafnutz05
Just over 20 inches on Mizzou's campus from that storm. An official 17 at the Columbia airport.

[robbiestoupe]

Seems like a timing issue. My phone app tells me it gon b cold af sometime this weekend.

[Morkle]

I want a good, unable to get out of the house snow storm.

[Dickie Dunn]

[shafnutz05]

@shafnutz05
Just over 20 inches on Mizzou's campus from that storm. An official 17 at the Columbia airport.

Wow! Yes that was a historic storm for Missouri.

[MR25]

I want a good, unable to get out of the house snow storm.

No.

[dodint]

Yeah, I have a funeral to attend on Saturday and will be at the country house for the weekend. A big no on a debilitating storm, please.

[shafnutz05]

Anyone's guess where this low pressure ultimately tracks. 12Z GFS shows a cutter up the interior mid-Atlantic resulting in mostly rain for eastern PA and heavy snow fall for north/west PA. This will be a fun storm to track, in any event. One thing of major concern is the heavy icing potential in the transition zone, wherever that axis sets up.

[shafnutz05]

Also, final totals from this weekend's storm. Areas around DC got walloped pretty good, along with the midwest. As Cbear said that was one hell of a snowstorm for Missouri.

[NAN]

I want a good, unable to get out of the house snow storm.

Me as well. I'm going to be pissed when it snows 3 inches.

[NailedPenguin]

[NailedPenguin]

[mac5155]

I want a biggun

Please update us daily weather nerdz
Thanks

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

All of these models are different

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

Sidebar weather channel has a high of 16 and low of 4 (four) on Monday. Wtf

[mac5155]

Fore

[count2infinity]

NPR ran a story this morning about how the government shutdown is impacting this upcoming hurricane season. Essentially, right now is when most of the R&D, model revision, data crunching from the previous season, etc occurs with the NWS. With the shutdown and furloughs, they're running with a barebones staff, and most of the experienced simulation and model experts are starting to look elsewhere for jobs. Shame, really.

[shafnutz05]

Yes, one thing is for sure. Once this pair of storms rolls through over the weekend, we are in for a serious deep freeze.

Here is the UK Model from the 0z run last night:



And ICON:



Take these with a grain of salt as it's all going to depend on where the low pressure is. There will be some SERIOUS Arctic air pouring in on the western side of the system. Check out these 2m temps on the ICON (Saturday to Tuesday).

[shafnutz05]

On the other hand, "King Euro" model has this thing crazy amped up and taking the low pressure system way west. In that scenario you would have temps during the storm in the 50s and rainfall in eastern PA. I do not envy weather forecasters with storms like this, just a crazy amount of things in play. Take a look at the Euro below, how you get the warmer air push into the NE with the jet stream further west:



And on the other hand the UKIE, which has a much stronger polar air push from the north which helps to keep it colder during the storm as the jet stream is suppressed south:

[mac5155]

good work thanks