Weather Thread

[CBear3]

Pretty sure you inserted the same model twice

[count2infinity]

twss?

[shafnutz05]

Pretty sure you inserted the same model twice

Sorry, fixed it. You can see how much higher the jet stream is on the Euro, hence it pulls the storm further west along with the warm temps.

[NAN]

shad, make it snow.

[the wicked child]

Shad said it would™

[shafnutz05]

Shad said it would™

lolol don't put that on me.

12Z model suite continues to bring even steeper heights to the east coast. Long story short is that on the GFS, for example, it tracks the low pressure almost as far west as Pittsburgh now and then NE up into Binghamton. Pennsylvania is going to be a damned slop fest, it's either going to be a soaker, snowstorm, or combination of the two with ice. Here is an illustration of what I am talking about re: higher heights (from 06z run to 12z):



Remember, in general, north/west side of LP = cold/snow, south/east side = "warm"/rain

The UK model is the only model which is consistently showing a snowstorm for most of PA at this point, primarily due to suppressing the storm to the southeast and keeping PA on the cold side. It is kind of out in la-la land right now, I would probably toss it at this point.

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

I predict rain, no ice.

[nocera]

I predict another weekend of being able to take down the Christmas decorations. Looks like we're "that house" this year.

[NAN]

So no snow?

[shafnutz05]

Interesting trend on the Euro today. It seems to have nudged towards the UK model. On the 0z run last night, it had the low pressure center sitting over Williamsport. Today on the 12z run, for the same timeframe (Sunday afternoon/evening), it has the low pressure near Philadelphia. Still not as far south (and snowy) as the UKIE, but a good step in the right direction for snow considering we are five days out.

So no snow?

You're gonna have to wait to know for sure.

[mac5155]

ELI5 what 'changes' about these models?

[shafnutz05]

ELI5 what 'changes' about these models?

Everything. Positions of air masses, jet stream, upper atmospheric phenomena, etc. Most people don't realize the absurdly high amount of variables that goes into forecasting. With winter storms, it is even more complex because you are trying to predict where multiple p-types (rain, sleet, ZR, snow) are going to fall with huge air cold/warm air masses doing battle in the upper atmosphere. For example, one of the main things driving where this low pressure goes is where the polar vortex is up in Canada. If it pushes further south, the cold air drives south and thus results in more snow for our region. How that vortex behaves in five days' time is difficult to predict, which is how you end up with half the modeling showing one scenario and the other half showing a completely different scenario. The TPV is only one of many factors. Hell, the behavior of the weaker storm moving through Thurs-Fri will have an influence on what happens to the bigger storm on Sunday.

It's why I always bristle at the mouth-breathers in comment sections recycling the same dumb comments about forecasters. Having learned a lot about it, I have an appreciation for what they do. I can only imagine how exhausting it must be for them to get 3,000 "HOW MUCH SNOW WE GONNA GET, JOE?" comments all winter.

[slappybrown]

ELI5 what 'changes' about these models?

Everything. Positions of air masses, jet stream, upper atmospheric phenomena, etc. Most people don't realize the absurdly high amount of variables that goes into forecasting. With winter storms, it is even more complex because you are trying to predict where multiple p-types (rain, sleet, ZR, snow) are going to fall with huge air cold/warm air masses doing battle in the upper atmosphere. For example, one of the main things driving where this low pressure goes is where the polar vortex is up in Canada. If it pushes further south, the cold air drives south and thus results in more snow for our region. How that vortex behaves in five days' time is difficult to predict, which is how you end up with half the modeling showing one scenario and the other half showing a completely different scenario. The TPV is only one of many factors. Hell, the behavior of the weaker storm moving through Thurs-Fri will have an influence on what happens to the bigger storm on Sunday.

It's why I always bristle at the mouth-breathers in comment sections recycling the same dumb comments about forecasters. Having learned a lot about it, I have an appreciation for what they do. I can only imagine how exhausting it must be for them to get 3,000 "HOW MUCH SNOW WE GONNA GET, JOE?" comments all winter.

the Meteorologist Defender has logged on

post the dang kuchera snowfall totals in the latest Sunday 6PM run or GTFO thats all we care about

[shafnutz05]

post the dang kuchera snowfall totals in the latest Sunday 6PM run or GTFO thats all we care about

[CBear3]

A group of friends rented both halves of a duplex through college:
We had two Nursing Majors, they screw up and somebody dies.
We had 1 teacher, they screw up and a kids life is ruined.
We had 1 engineer, he screws up and somebody dies.
Then we had the meteorology major, she screws up and everybody shrugs their shoulders. We figured she was definitely the smartest of us.

[blackjack68]

That's why I went into Marketing & Advertising!

[dodint]

A group of friends rented both halves of a duplex through college:
We had two Nursing Majors, they screw up and somebody dies.
We had 1 teacher, they screw up and a kids life is ruined.
We had 1 engineer, he screws up and somebody dies.
Then we had the meteorology major, she screws up and everybody shrugs their shoulders. We figured she was definitely the smartest of us.

How many are related to nobody?

[Factorial]

Watch out, he'll get you with a zinger.

[grunthy]

A group of friends rented both halves of a duplex through college:
We had two Nursing Majors, they screw up and somebody dies.
We had 1 teacher, they screw up and a kids life is ruined.
We had 1 engineer, he screws up and somebody dies.
Then we had the meteorology major, she screws up and everybody shrugs their shoulders. We figured she was definitely the smartest of us.

How many are related to nobody?

The two nursing majors and teacher were probably related. No meteorologists or engineers(just me) in the family.

[CBear3]

Kind of weather related:

So the group mailbox for my cul-de-sac is "on my property." In the sense that I'm the closest house, and the city actually controls everything within 10' of the street but I digress.
After the blizzard, this weekend, I hadn't thought to shovel it clear until this morning.
The neighborhood Facebook page dings with a message of a person asking who's responsibility clearing mailboxes was. I replied that really it's whoever the nicest person on the street is or whoever is closest, whichever happens first. And that I felt bad for not getting to ours until this morning.

She replies "The one across from the pool. Well it's a sheet of ice now."

Well dodint, take some of your salty attitude and spread it around, that should do the trick.

[grunthy]

Definitely reply with that last line...

[mac5155]

Who even gets mail anymore

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

This isn’t hitting pgh right

[Viva la Ben]

Weather is immune to the shadjinx.

[mac5155]

We ain't getting shyt