Fifth Avenue Forum

I fixed the issue and I apologize for everyone who had to read it.

My kid had pneumonia twice before she was 2. One of which landed us in the hospital for a night. So yeah... I'm not a fan of "well... statistically speaking..................."

I hear ya man. Having followed my daughter's ambulance the whole way to DuPont down in Delaware one scary, terrifying night, I don't ever want to live through that again.

Respiratory stuff terrifies me.

I don’t think you two are articulating much of a point here. There’s plenty of discussion beyond “get the vax” happening.

What’s odd is defending the merits of natural immunity and then getting defensive about your stance on vaccinations. If you think everyone who doesn’t get the vax is demonstrating a clear degree of stupidity, then great - we all agree.

So when you talk about re-infection possibilities being low for non vaxed you’re just throwing a little sidebar out there? Ok. Fine. But it’s pretty odd behavior.

Defending is the wrong word.

Prior covid infection and recovery is likely to protect you from delta, even more so than the vaccine only (see Israel).

There is no valid reason not to be vaccinated regardless of prior covid infection and recovery. It's upside only. The risks of covid infection or re-infection far outweigh the risks of receiving the vaccine.

Both of these things can be true.

I dont understand why I must denounce the 2nd to say the 1st.

I guess it’s just an interesting tidbit to you then? That’s fine, of course. I guess most people find it all to be irrelevant, so it’s sort of odd to see it played out in this thread.

But ok. It’s compelling subject matter to some. Enjoy. Sorry for poopooing on the fun.

I, for one, appreciate KCs honesty and willingness to discuss rationally. Even if I am unable to.

On that study out of Israel:

The study is what is known as a preprint, meaning it has not yet been vetted by experts. It was posted Aug. 25 on medRxiv.com, which added this note: "This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice."

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... s-risks-g/

Because the CDC cleared my group for a booster I get mine on Saturday. They said if there are flu shots there they'll give me one for free with the booster plus a $5 gift card.

Because the CDC cleared my group for a booster I get mine on Saturday. They said if there are flu shots there they'll give me one for free with the booster plus a $5 gift card.

What group are you in?

And I thought that you already had the booster a few weeks ago? Maybe that someone else here.

I had made an appointment and cancelled it because my group had technically not been cleared and they were still saying 8 months which wouldn't be until November for me.

I'm 18+ with underlying conditions the CDC determines are worthy of early vaccination. I'm fat, have high BP, and smoke.

However I am down 20lbs since May and down to half a pack a day. Not great but it's a start.

Source of the post However I am down 20lbs since May and down to half a pack a day.

Quitting smoking was insanely hard. I tried and failed numerous times. The only thing that was able to do the job was switching to vaping and then gradually lowering my nicotine strength starting from 12mg, to 6, then 3, and eventually 0. That process was nearly a year, though. I didn't make it through the bottle of 0mg nic. There wasn't much point to continuing to smoke that.

Source of the post However I am down 20lbs since May and down to half a pack a day.

Quitting smoking was insanely hard. I tried and failed numerous times. The only thing that was able to do the job was switching to vaping and then gradually lowering my nicotine strength starting from 12mg, to 6, then 3, and eventually 0. That process was nearly a year, though. I didn't make it through the bottle of 0mg nic. There wasn't much point to continuing to smoke that.

My ex father in law, RIP, was a heroin addict. He said quitting heroin was easier than quitting cigarettes.

Four positive students over the last two days at my daughter’s elementary school, with the latter three all being siblings. Given what I’ve seen elsewhere, we’re doing pretty well.

A staff member in my infant son's classroom tested positive and now he has to quarantine from school until OCTOBER FRIGGIN 12TH.

He has already had covid and recovered but not sure how to ask the grandmothers to watch him. Thinking I will manage working tomorrow with him home, and get him tested over the weekend or monday to give them peace of mind that he's not afflicted.

Idk what the protocol even is but my wife has no PTO and I have to be in the office both Tuesday and Thursday.

Not sure why they can't just allow kids back with a negative test 5 days after exposure

I think it's 5 days post exposure to get an accurate test, right? Like any earlier than that you can get a false negative

Wonder if that staff member had COVID and thought his/her resiliency would longer than it did.

One of my staff's daughters tested positive after attending a revival/retreat over the weekend. She's college-aged, and attends a religious institution and was baptized, so tons of pictures...and not many masks. Interesting to see if there is an outbreak in that county.

Anyway, she is coming home to quarantine. Her quarantine period started two days before symptoms - so she can go back to campus next Friday. Her mom can come to work as she's vaccinated and her daughter will be in her room when her parents are home.

Last week I was at a conference that was a part of Boston’s biotech week. These medicines have come light years in just the last 5-10 years. What they can do and how they do it is amazing. I visited a customer of ours that produces siRNA therapeutics. Holy crap was their facility impressive. Their proof of concept drugs are focused on rare disease, but now that they’ve seen success, they’re focusing on more widespread issues. One drug in their pipeline will target those that have a genetic predisposition to high levels of cholesterol. Heart disease is the top killer in the USA. Could be huge.

This is my major beef with the "The vaccines were rushed! Vaccines take decades to develop!" folks out there. They don't have the slightest idea just how far the SotA in biology/immunology has come, let alone just how fast that state is advancing.

2) we have about a month until vaxes are a go. the social expectation is that we protect them, not indefinitely, but for another few weeks. So Billy Bob sneezing ronies into his kid, who then sits next to my kid at lunch…that’s a particularly inexcusable phenomenon. Once everyone is actually eligible for the vax, we can live in shyster’s fantasy land where protecting kids at schools is some silly obsession by us irrational breeders.

It's not silly or irrational, but it must be kept in perspective. Decades of psychological research shows that humans are rubbish at calculating risks. We greatly overestimate the risks of rare and unusual events, while at the same time underestimate or ignore the risks of common and everyday tasks. That's why millions of people are afraid of flying because they're terrified of a plane crash, yet they don't think twice about the risks of driving to the airport. The risk of dying in a car crash on the way to fly is much, much higher than the risk of crashing when flying, and that's the case even if you're a pilot or flight attendant who flies for a living.

Research also shows that when the risk has some emotional trigger associated with it—such as a risk that involves children—the risk is even more likely to be overestimated. Other factors that heighten the perception of risk include:

- Catastrophic potential: Lots of people affected at once, rather than in small numbers over time.
- Familiarity: A risk that isn't common knowledge.
- Understanding: A sense that something isn't well understood by ourselves or experts. We overestimate the risk of what we don’t understand.
- Personal control: A sense that danger is outside your control.
- Voluntariness: Something can do harm even when you don't voluntarily put yourself in danger.
- Children: Mention the word children, and worry multiplies.
- Victim identity: As Joseph Stalin said: "One death is a tragedy; one million deaths is a statistic." We are also more likely to see something as risky if it affects the members of our own identity groups. Who the victim is can be almost, if not more, as important as the circumstance.
- Origin: Man-made risks are viewed as more dangerous than natural disasters. For example, floods and earthquakes are more accepted than nuclear accidents or oil spills.

SARS-CoV-2 hits many of the triggers on that list, which means that we should all be aware of distortions to our own thinking when it comes to the pandemic. That includes over-estimating the risks of "Billy Bob sneezing ronies into his kid, who then sits next to my kid at lunch." Is there a risk of that? Sure. Will your kid die? Almost certainly not. Does that mean that no precautions should be taken? No. Reasonable precautions can and should be taken. But that doesn't mean that every possible precaution would be appropriate. Everything must be kept in actual perspective, not the distorted perspectives that our minds want to take.

The type of shooting he does, it does. It's one of those shooting things where you run through obstacle courses and whatnot.

I didn't even know that was a thing but I'm not surprised.

Look up "three gun shooting." Here's an example:

Shyster. What are the stats of MIMH sucking.

Shyster. What are the stats of MIMH sucking.

Believe it or not, that risk is actually underestimated.

@shyster

I agree with that risk perspective post to an extent, but take issue with the example. The difference between flying and driving is not about probabilities, but the semblance of control that driving affords versus being on a plane. I just think it’s a different psychosis at play.