Penguins Prospects Thread

[MR25]

Didn't realize he was back from the broken neck

[mikey]

Tankov continues to lead the VHL playoffs in scoring. 8 goals (no one else is over 5), 12 points in 9 games. His club won the first round as a 7th seed in 7 games, but are down 2-0 to the #4 seed, next game Mar. 15.

If you want some day time hockey and don't mind that sometimes this league looks like bad roller hockey, you can watch it here for free:

He wears #86 and is LHS

[Dickie Dunn]

Great. How about you bother doing write-ups on the new guys.

[mikey]

Yes, yes...

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

If you want some day time hockey

I read this as "someday time-hockey" and was very confused as to what time hockey was

[dodint]

Sweet. I have something to do in 47 hours.

[King Colby]

Is a 22 year old in the VHL still an entity

[mikey]

Absolutely. He's played this whole season as a 21 year old. He's a year removed from a serious injury, so this is a rehab season.

He's had a nice little run here to close the season...21 points in his last 24 games. That make him the best point per game player for any 5'11" or greater U22 VHL player (Alexander Rykov, 25 in 27; CAR 4th in '23).

If he plays well in the KHL next year, I think we could have a player in 2026. I look at the track of Alexander Barabanov as a potential track. Barabanov struggled to stay afloat at the pro level at first and played as a 20 year old junior...then jumped to the KHL. So, if we can get that jump to the KHL and have some respectable production next year, I think there's a real shot. Tankov has more skill than Barabanov at the same age and Tankov is bigger.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

please god I just want a player named "Tankov" on the Pens. would be entertaining

[Gaucho]

Ponomarev and Waeber (backup) make their debut for WBS tonight.

[mikey]

Ville Koivunen (RW) - Smart, two-way winger. Koivunen doesn’t offer too much skill in space, despite some high-end scoring totals. He boasts a nice wrist shot, that looks capable from the middle layer. In there really lies his signature move: cutting inside on defensemen and then release a shot against the grain from the middle layer. He really doesn’t have the hands to beat players one on one with any regularity, nor is he really a player that can consistently cross lines with the puck in his possession. Part of that is just his overall technical skill, especially while his feet are in motion. The other part is his below average skating quickness and speed. There just isn’t a lot of extension in his stride and it severely lacks explosiveness. There is potential for some growth there perhaps; the edgework is the best thing about the whole package. He’s an interesting player in that he goes in and battles for pucks and he really stays with those battles. He finds pucks in traffic, he corrals pucks out of his feet, he has a terrific stick, and he puts out some good hustle. Contrarily, Ville doesn’t always exhibit that same drive when he has the puck. As a younger player, I always expected this player to come down the wing, throw it on his backhand, and then try to bore his way to the net…but it seldom ever happened. This year (23-24), there's more of that, which is nice and probably contributed to his improved totals. The pass acceptance and puck control look better than they were in his draft year.

It’s a shame he lacks overwhelming offensive gusto because his hockey sense is really strong, so is his spatial awareness. Koivunen does a real nice job of lying in the weeds and then making a well-timed launch towards an exchange or overlap play, or towards a controlled zone entry play against his group. It just doesn’t seem like it’s on the menu in the same way when he’s on the offensive. His feet move a little less when he has the puck, so the game is going to come at him fast (see: his unsuccessful AHL attempt). His puck distribution skills were only okay, and they’re typically done while sort of fading off the play – not so much making that “finishing” pass in the lowest layer of the attack zone. That's an element of his game that seems better this year too, and there's a bit of Puustinen to his game where he can really surprise you with a dime because of his smarts and timing.

The foot churn and quickness need to be better, especially if he's just going to be a depth player. I had wished that he leaned on d-men a lot more in his draft year, it's hard to say if that's improved in my sample because Liiga appears to be getting softer...he's going to need to figure out how to establish faux initial points of contact with d-men to setup better deception and buy him more time. It's a little tough because he's playing with an interior shot (and did so in junior), I highly doubt that he'll be permitted to do that over here...

This is a lot of my notes from 2021, but I've modified some stuff based on some recent viewings. There's improvement to his game. I wonder a little bit about the transferability of these goals...

Tough to figure out what exactly he can be because there's some projectable elements to his game, but he's a player without a real niche either...maybe he ends up being sort of like Bunting, but slower...? Pretty tough even after seeing dev time. Let's get him to WBS at the end of the year and see if that goes better than it did for him before...

[Lelldorin]

Ty for your service mikey. I like how you make him sound like crap and then write that he is slightly worse than an established NHLer

[Gaucho]

ty, Michael

To add: Koivunen so far this year is roughly doubling his offensive output from the previous two seasons.

[mikey]

Ty for your service mikey. I like how you make him sound like crap and then write that he is slightly worse than an established NHLer

Heh, it's just for style comparison. Like, Bunting and Bunting types don't break games open. But in the right situations, they can get keep a line going. The key is: plays not dying with him. If he has the skating ability to ensure plays don't die with him, that'd be a good start. Puustinen really seemed to get that in his second stint this year.

More comin'...

[Trip McNeely]

Frankly it’s nice to see a write up from you that doesn’t say “I have no idea what our scouts saw in this guy”. Or “he has a good shot but half of the board here are better skaters”

Thanks for the write ups Mikey. They are really good reads

[mikey]

Yeah, this was Carolina's good (though underpaid) scouting team...this is exactly what I wanted (not the player, per se) conceptually...someone else's scouts doing the work, our GM picking the talent...not a slew of picks that we'll probably still end up throwing in the garbage...

[Trip McNeely]

Yeah, this was Carolina's good (though underpaid) scouting team...this is exactly what I wanted (not the player, per se) conceptually...someone else's scouts doing the work, our GM picking the talent...not a slew of picks that we'll probably still end up throwing in the garbage...

It’s very understated among the media (because they have no real insight) how bad our amateur scouting is.

For a team that has essentially lacked any top 10 picks in the last decade plus, allowing our scouting department to fail pretty dramatically is something to behold. Outside of a few players, who were probably created in part due to Sully, the drafting as mostly been horrendous

[mikey]

When you have an eight (8!!!) year run where you've produced more undrafted FA skaters than drafted skaters...you're a clown show. The draft isn't quite as random or a "crapshoot" as folks want to believe...it's not a fair chance game, it's not close to that. There's skill in it.

Pre-caffeine analogy: It's like blackjack. If you have a process, you can win in short spurts. Now, the cards are sometimes dead against you...and there are no win situations. But you can eat into the luck with skill, you can eat into the house advantage with skill, you can expand your platform for luck with skill..............also luck. But the luck is baked in. When you have a player who wants to quit hockey at 19 because he "loves his girlfriend too much" or you have a top 10 draft pick who ended up getting "addicted to video games" - that's a bit unlucky (it also might be a bit of "you didn't do your homework completely" too).

The last draft that Jay Heinbuck had a say here was 2015. We had picks: 46, 137, 167, and 197. It produced two 200 game players, one of which is still active, Daniel Sprong and Dominik Simon.

We took a 20 year old college freshman who ended up having his peak developmental season that year and is enjoying a quality career in Germany. That was a defensible pick. Then we took a shot in the 7th with a 6'7" kid from Russia who was already over here. Fine.

Since then?

One skater that has played over 35 NHL games - Calen Addison (53rd overall in 2018). There's your "I'll just hit on 16 when the dealer has a 6 showing" luck.

Drew O'Connor - UDFA 2020 will hit 200 NHL games next year certainly.
Conor Sheary - UDFA 2016 hit 200 NHL games a long time ago.

2 to 1.

Hell, even Sergei Plotnikov would rank ahead of our next draft pick...

[Trip McNeely]

I’m hoping Dubas has his pulse on this and is willing to make changes. I would think FSG would be willing to spend lots on amateur scouting since that’s sort of their calling card when it comes to the Sox but moreso Liverpool.

[Gaucho]

Thats what happens when you hire a bunch of FOMs to do your scouting.

[MR25]

Well the amateur scouting is primarily dominated by Ron Hextall's friend's kid and his buddies...

[Trip McNeely]

https://theathletic.com/5094373/2024/03 ... ed_article

For those who have access to the Athletic, really good article about Pickering. Talks about his growth spurts (dude is now 6’5”) and his struggles to add on weight. But he absolutely seems to have his head on straight. It seems like his stock might be a little down but his upside might be higher than ever. I’m sure Mikey has more insight too

[Gaucho]

Well the amateur scouting is primarily dominated by Ron Hextall's friend's kid and his buddies...

[Gaucho]

heads be rolling, hopefully

[mikey]

Sorry, this is another one where I'm just c&p'ing my old notes and then trying to intersperse where he's at now...

Cruz Lucius (RW) –

Balanced offensive winger. Cruz Lucius, once again felled by injury, missed a considerable portion of the 2021-22 season. Playing just a small handful of games in his draft year is always tough…but at some point or another, something needs to be put on paper. He did put together a couple of nice games at the end of the year, but all in all, he was worked in sparingly – a slight down tick in ice time from how he started the season, but not by a lot. The trouble with Lucius is finding what parts of his game translate to the next level. He’s not a flashy player by any means. There are some hints of deception to his game, but the puckhandling isn’t totally there. What’s worse is that his skating and puck control away from his body is limited and it makes productive dekes difficult. He can setup some d-men with an outside to inside move that can freeze them up, but the burst to really get to that inside spot isn’t there nor is the puck protection to buy that time.

Lucius has some good playmaking attributes, especially off of zone entries in the high layer of the offensive zone. He likes to post up and allow a wave of defenders to go by and then make a pass to the interior. Some of the rest of his passing game is lacking though – there isn’t a ton of zip on his passes and the accuracy is off. Part of that is probably because he hasn’t played that much – just about three dozen USHL games over the past two seasons – but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. He has a decent shot, but nothing like his brother Chaz. Cruz’s knack for far post shooting is one of the few scalable traits that is readily apparent. Overall, his skill level isn’t particularly interesting. There isn’t a lot of pop to it and it’s all done in a very confined space relative to his body. Similarly, his skating stride is very compact and also has no pop. Whether one hand washes the other in terms of skating and his lackluster pace of play, we’ll see as he (hopefully) improves his stamina and conditioning. His game and skating really break down on him late in shifts right now. It doesn’t appear as if Cruz is ready for the college game quite yet, but the appeal of playing with his brother at the University of Minnesota may be too tempting to pass up, but that move might be too big of a shock to the system for the fairly fragile status of his development arc.

##

For one, he changed his commitment to Wisconsin. For two, one thing I notice right away is how small his hips are. His stride is about as compact and lacking extension of any stride I've ever seen for a player over 5'8" (he's 6'0"). I had him as only having an average motor in his abbreviated draft year, that's way up. If it was a 5/5.5 out of 9 then, it looks like a 7.5 out of 9 or so now. Maybe even 8. That's a really nice perk. He's intent on being around the puck. He stops on pucks. He dives inside to try to pick off passes. He's going to need to play with pace because the skating is an issue. And it's a physical...deformity (or so it looks to me)...he's not gonna fix that. So, he's gotta play fast.

I think the skill level has tracked up a bit. Enough to keep things alive. He scores a lot of goals in the puddle, which is nice because that's transferable to every level. I don't think he'll be shooting many past a goalie in the NHL. Really pleasantly surprised by his hockey sense now. Back to back point per game college seasons made my "[not quite] ready for the college game..." note look stupid. Back to back seasons leading his team in scoring, one of which was a garbage team trying to get out of its own way...this year, they were pretty legit.

All right, so where we at here in this mess?

Well, he works hard. He can score near the net. He's smart. There's definite improvement from his draft season. He's also playing the games. Postural skating issues put a cap on him to a degree for me. He looks pretty weak, but he doesn't play an obviously timid game. There's definitely something here, I'm just worried about the step to the pros and what's transferable. He scores near the net...yes. But he's 175 pounds and it's hard to be a fire hydrant out in front if you're built like a barstool. You watch him try to backtrack and lean into guys and they go through him like he's a Kleenex at a snot party...so even if your hips are bad, you can still figure something out to give yourself a chance. I'd like to see him do another year at Wisconsin and focus on a few specific things and then come to the AHL after that season ends I think.