Fifth Avenue Forum

Recent playoffs (since lockout), current era with current formatting (2-2-1-1-1)

Home team (win%)
Game 1: 61.5%
Game 2: 55.9%
Game 3: 53.3%
Game 4: 49.2%
Game 5: 58.7%
Game 6: 54.1%
Game 7: 48.2%

So after game 1, it is pretty much 50-50. Home ice no real advantage?

I don’t know. With the new playoff format (a growing sample size) and the parity in the league, I think those percentages do show a decent home ice advantage in some games.

I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.

With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.

I don’t know. With the new playoff format (a growing sample size) and the parity in the league, I think those percentages do show a decent home ice advantage in some games.

Yes.

I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.

With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.

Chlorophyll? More like Borophyll

I just went through this years games. If I counted right, looks like home wins are 13 and visitors are 11. Slight home ice advantage.

home teams win less in the playoffs than in the regular season.. home ice advantage isn't a thing. Unless game 1 is worth more than the others?

"Of course." -Zatkoff, probably.

in a 7 game series, the higher seed gets 57.14% of the home games.. basically I think the reason home team win % is over 50% at all is because the better team has home ice more often.

Big if true.

Ok, Copernicus

in a 7 game series, the higher seed gets 57.14% of the home games.. basically I think the reason home team win % is over 50% at all is because the better team has home ice more often.

Makes sense to me.

Ok, Copernicus

I thought loud fans = wins?

I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.

With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.

Chlorophyll? More like Borophyll

Hey I'm bored at work and stats are only good if you can prove beyond a p=.05

Unless game 1 is worth more than the others?

Of course it is. Always gives the advantage in the series. Sets the tone.

First goal numbers similar, also valuable. Sets the tone for the game. Dictates strategy, affects matchups, deployment, etc.

Since big sleep, teams win 73.9% when scoring first. Similarly, game 1 home winner wins 76.4% of all series. Game 1 winner wins about 70% of all series.

Hugely impactful. Home ice advantage on-ice and historical data present compelling case.

Sundqvist is slow as ****.

...and he only won 42% of his draws, which is a brutal stat. I like Sundqvist, but the Pens badly need a faceoff guy. The less time the bottom D pair spends in their own end without the puck, the better. Speed is one thing, but you've got to possess the puck even to utilize that.

A “faceoff guy” on this team is 3C or 4C. Which means that he wins 1-2 more faceoffs per game than a replacement level player. There’s no point in prioritizing that

A 3 or 4 is going to take those draws in the d zone or on the pk. There’s no issue with wanting that guy to be competent