ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

mikey
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby mikey » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:31 pm

Recent playoffs (since lockout), current era with current formatting (2-2-1-1-1)

Home team (win%)
Game 1: 61.5%
Game 2: 55.9%
Game 3: 53.3%
Game 4: 49.2%
Game 5: 58.7%
Game 6: 54.1%
Game 7: 48.2%

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby offsides » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:01 pm

So after game 1, it is pretty much 50-50. Home ice no real advantage?

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby meow » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:07 pm

I don’t know. With the new playoff format (a growing sample size) and the parity in the league, I think those percentages do show a decent home ice advantage in some games.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby MR25 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:19 pm

I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.

With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby mikey » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:25 pm

I don’t know. With the new playoff format (a growing sample size) and the parity in the league, I think those percentages do show a decent home ice advantage in some games.
Yes.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby meow » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:25 pm

I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.

With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.


Chlorophyll? More like Borophyll

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby offsides » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:39 pm

I just went through this years games. If I counted right, looks like home wins are 13 and visitors are 11. Slight home ice advantage.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby willeyeam » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:40 pm

home teams win less in the playoffs than in the regular season.. home ice advantage isn't a thing. Unless game 1 is worth more than the others?

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby dodint » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:41 pm

"Of course." -Zatkoff, probably.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby willeyeam » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:42 pm

in a 7 game series, the higher seed gets 57.14% of the home games.. basically I think the reason home team win % is over 50% at all is because the better team has home ice more often.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby Kane » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:44 pm

Big if true.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby meow » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:46 pm

Ok, Copernicus

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby offsides » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:47 pm

in a 7 game series, the higher seed gets 57.14% of the home games.. basically I think the reason home team win % is over 50% at all is because the better team has home ice more often.
Makes sense to me.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby willeyeam » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:50 pm

Ok, Copernicus
:slug:

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby Lemon Berry Lobster » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:54 pm

I thought loud fans = wins?

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby MR25 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:06 pm

I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.

With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.


Chlorophyll? More like Borophyll

Hey I'm bored at work and stats are only good if you can prove beyond a p=.05

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby mikey » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:03 pm

Unless game 1 is worth more than the others?
Of course it is. Always gives the advantage in the series. Sets the tone.

First goal numbers similar, also valuable. Sets the tone for the game. Dictates strategy, affects matchups, deployment, etc.

Since big sleep, teams win 73.9% when scoring first. Similarly, game 1 home winner wins 76.4% of all series. Game 1 winner wins about 70% of all series.

Hugely impactful. Home ice advantage on-ice and historical data present compelling case.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby willeyeam » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:05 pm

:face:

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby Rx6687 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:39 pm

Sundqvist is slow as ****.
...and he only won 42% of his draws, which is a brutal stat. I like Sundqvist, but the Pens badly need a faceoff guy. The less time the bottom D pair spends in their own end without the puck, the better. Speed is one thing, but you've got to possess the puck even to utilize that.

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby shmenguin » Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:17 pm

A “faceoff guy” on this team is 3C or 4C. Which means that he wins 1-2 more faceoffs per game than a replacement level player. There’s no point in prioritizing that

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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19

Postby meow » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:14 pm

A 3 or 4 is going to take those draws in the d zone or on the pk. There’s no issue with wanting that guy to be competent

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