Discussing the Pens' Roster: Comparing to other teams

Postby **Avyran** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:02 pm

TL;DR - Pens' struggles are comparable to Kings & Bruins (both of whom went all-in for several years). However, Pens' problems are magnified due to lack of home-grown players as well as recent disastrous playoff runs. It isn't a unique situation, and is not the end of the world... but it is concerning, especially with so many draft picks again traded away.

Their has been a lot of discussion over the Pens' roster lately: usually vile against Scuderi & Adams, frustration over some trades, and otherwise disgust at the humongous slump. I wanted to compare their roster & struggles to other teams, notably teams that have recently won the Stanley Cup as well as contenders this year.

The Pens have a roster consisting of major mishmashes. More than any of the other teams I'll discuss, the Pens have relied heavily on trade and free agency to construct their current roster. Thankfully, due to the work of Botterill & others, they have been able to not have much cap trouble until this year, when the injuries have brought on so many extra contracts. However, it also means that the Pens do not have any real prospects ready to come up & make a major impact outside of Pouliot. In the spoiler, I will list the Pens that have been drafted by the organization as well as when, and then the Pens that have been acquired.

That is a lot of trades & free agents. There are several young players in the organization progressing, but they are all pluggers in terms of forwards: Wilson, Rust, Farnham. Dumoulin is probably NHL-ready already, and Harrington will be ready soon as well. The defense is fine for years to come (even without Despres).

Los Angeles

In the first comparison, let's look at LA. Though they are fighting for 8th, most still fear the team due to their uncanny ability to ramp up at the end of the season & play well in the playoffs. However, there is a VERY real chance that they will miss the playoffs, as they duel the Jets & the Flames. If they get in, they'll be a major struggle with the Ducks; again, though, that's a big if.

Their team is much more secure in terms of forwards, but has a weaker defense (especially with Voynov banished). They should be okay, but will need players like Toffoli, Pearson, Nolan, and others to continue progressing well. Lots of successful 1st & 2nd rounders, as well as some defenders that were successful despite being drafted later or not at all (Martinez & Muzzin).

Chicago

Next, let's look at Chicago. Like the Kings, they also have a lot of players that went through the system. However, unlike the Kings, they picked up a lot of players from FA or in good trades (like Sharp). They have also kept up their success this season despite drama (Sharp) & some injuries (Kane). They are the SC winner most likely to repeat success this year.

They've gotten value from their 2nd rounders & beyond (Teravainen I consider to be a plug until Kane returns). They have some major salary cap problems coming up, however, with Toews+Kane both costing 10+ million, and Hossa signed for several years more (though he seems to be ageless). Timonen, Vermette, & Richards are all UFAs. Of all the teams I'm comparing, they are the most in trouble going forward due to the cap.

Boston

Finally from the other Stanley Cup winners, let's look at Boston. Like the Pens, they are slumping heavily. Their problem is similar to the Pens: they rely heavily on getting players from outside the draft. Some were great pickups (Rask for Raycroft, Seidenberg for bad prospects), while others were taken for a great price (Eriksson + Smith for Seguin).

Like the Hawks, they are also struggling greatly with the cap. They traded Boychuk because of this, and I've read predictions that they will need to trade Seidenberg as well. Chara has a lengthy & expensive contract, and they are not getting secondary scoring as much. Hamilton is looking like a stud defensively, but the rest... well... They are not getting much secondary scoring this year, and other players like Eriksson & Chara are starting to slow down from age & wear. They will likely struggle in the near future unless they do some strong maneuvering.

I was going to do some more comparisons, but this is getting more lengthy. If you guys want, I'll compare them to non-Stanley Cup teams, but I think this was enough for one post.

The point? Other teams are struggling just like the Pens. Continually maintaining a contender-level team is very, very difficult. However, moving forward, the Pens will need to rely on their few prospects to really progress & work, as their drafting has been fairly horrid.

Postby **large garlic** » Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:46 pm

Thanks for putting this together, though it's not exactly heartening. I'm trying not to be pessimistic, but it feels like the Pens are going to need serious re-tooling to be legitimate contenders again. Having a core of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fleury will keep them competitive, but the supporting cast is subpar, and it seems there are no easy solutions.

The one silver lining I see is that assuming Martin and Ehrhoff walk, Dupuis retires, and they can unload Kunitz, they would have a good bit of money to play with in free agency. Now, they'd also have a lot of holes to fill, and they'd need to be really lucky in finding undervalued free agents, but maybe there's some hope there.

Postby **columbia** » Sun Apr 05, 2015 7:04 am

Winnik and Comeau playing in the top six, while Bennett is trying to justify his existence tells you a lot about their current state.

Does Dupuis come off the salary cap books, if he retires?
Please trade Kunitz to Moose Jaw.
Yes, Ehrhoff's cap space will help.
I'd love to see Martin return, but that doesn't seem to be the likely outcome.

If Harrington can make a splash in a few years (along with Maatta and Pouliot), they will have a cheaper back end and can work further to balance out of the roster. I have hopes for the 17-18, 18-19 seasons at this point, but not necessarily the medium future. Malkin and Crosby will still be top 10 players and anything can happen with that kind of talent.