mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

[DigitalGypsy66]

3 Cups*

[willeyeam]

they don't ask how they ask how many

[dodint]

The team may have thrown his name on it anyway, but he played in the minimum number of regular-season games and zero post-season games for compulsory inclusion in the cup engraving.

[mikey]

mikey, are there a lot of defenseman in the HOF that never placed higher than third in a Norris vote?

I legit don't know if that's normal or not.

Assuming that we're throwing out any d-men pre-Norris era for the inquiry, of course...

Kevin Lowe (1x 5th)
Sergei Zubov (1x 3rd, his only top-5)
Phil Housley (1x 3rd, 4x top-5)
Larry Murphy (2x 3rd)
Slava Fetisov (0 career Norris votes, but his prime was in USSR, came over at 31)
Serge Savard (no top 3)
Leo Boivin (no top 3, 1x 5th)

Close:
Guy Lapointe (1x 2nd, 1x 3rd in a fairly weak era for d-men overall)
Marcel Pronovost (1x 2nd, 2x 3rd)

I think I encompassed everyone who had the majority of their career or prime in the Norris Trophy era...assembled in good faith.

[willeyeam]

Zubov actually seems like a pretty good comparable

[NTP66]

Letang > Zubov, IMO.

[dodint]

Thanks mikey, curiosity satisfied.

I can't speak for the veracity of their model, but I look at Hockey Reference for stuff like this and these are the comparables they listed:

Flash Hollett
Dan Boyle
Georges Boucher*
Victor Hedman
Steve Duchesne
Mark Howe*
Shea Weber
Andrei Markov
Drew Doughty
Sandis Ozolinsh

Granted, I think their analysis is mostly about adjusted points by position. Which I think is a poor way to evaluate d-men, particularly since that's what I dislike most about Letang.

[mikey]

The trouble is is that there's no adjustment for era here either.

It's the old thing about how did anyone (Yzerman, etc.) get any post-season all star nods with 99 and 66 roaming the earth?
How did anyone get a sniff against Hasek/Roy/Brodeur/Belfour?
Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady all had a lot of overlap...that could 4 of the top 10 or 15 QBs of all time...that's a tough road, especially in the NFL's pathetic award voting system.

Late 80's to early 00's, there were some serious d-men in the league...it's tough. That's why proper talent evaluation needs to come into play...

[DigitalGypsy66]

I was a big fan of Ozolinsh back in the day. 564 career points and 2 hat tricks(!)

[mikey]

Thanks mikey, curiosity satisfied.

I can't speak for the veracity of their model, but I look at Hockey Reference for stuff like this and these are the comparables they listed:

Flash Hollett
Dan Boyle
Georges Boucher*
Victor Hedman
Steve Duchesne
Mark Howe*
Shea Weber
Andrei Markov
Drew Doughty
Sandis Ozolinsh

Granted, I think their analysis is mostly about adjusted points by position. Which I think is a poor way to evaluate d-men, particularly since that's what I dislike most about Letang.

Their comparables and point shares and adjusted points systems are all rubbish.

But you listed two current HOF d-men, then Hedman and Weber are locks. I think Doughty is right there too. That's a lot of beef.

Though, Flash Hollett sticks out like a sore thumb there...bandied around for a while, didn't have any interesting seasons until the War years way past his prime...

[willeyeam]

Current dmen with a good case:

Weber
Doughty
Burns
Karlsson
Chara
Letang
Hedman
Keith
Carlson (?)

I'd think a top 6-8 dman for most of a generation is deserving, 8 or so from this era doesn't seem like too much imo

[willeyeam]

Maybe Pietrangelo?

[mikey]

Weber is going
Doughty is probably going
Burns has no chance
Karlsson is a windmill dunk
Chara is a windmill dunk
Letang has a shot
Hedman is going
Keith is likely going
Carlson has no chance
Pietrangelo has little chance

Add Suter, he has a chance...but like 20-30 years after his career is over.

[mikey]

Lot of racetrack left, but add Roman Josi to the watchlist. He's going to add a fourth top-5 Norris finish, perhaps his second Norris. He'll get some MVP consideration too, it's a real impact season.

[willeyeam]

Burns no chance? Hmm

[mikey]

Yeah, he's got three top-3 finishes for the Norris (one win)...but they're not very fondly looked back at already. He had no staying power and has been ghastly defensively. He's also spent time at forward, so just dropping that in the HOF members' minds is enough to taint his pure production to probably an unwarranted degree. But he was a mess defensively, even at his best...

He's better than Carol Vadnais (not a HOFer), but I don't think he's Phil Housley good overall...Burns has one signature playoff run, that Housley doesn't have...but Housley better at offense (worse at defense) for longer, more consistently...

I don't know...I just don't see a case for such a messy player that only had a handful of impact seasons...and he had a lot of fellow slobs (defensively) to go against at the time: Karlsson, Carlson, Subban, etc.

[willeyeam]

I'm not arguing, just a little surprised to see the no shot designation. Just figured a Norris and all the points he's got would give him a shot. I wasn't sure how long he was at RW too

[willeyeam]

Also surprised to see Karlsson windmill dunk, has he been noticably better than Letang, or everyone else but Chara on that list?

Edit: two Norris and that crazy stretch. Guess that's a better peak than anyone.

[mikey]

I think Erik Karlsson has a fringe case as one of the 100 best hockey players of all time. I think he was a unicorn. His warts were there, sure...but what he did was historically special.

Karlsson got 25 goals out of fourth liner Zack Smith - it's more than a quarter of the goals he'd score in his 10 year career. He didn't get to that many goals in junior...

He led the league in assists. He was 4th in the entire NHL in scoring (against Kane, Crosby, Thornton, etc.),. As a d-man, on a team with one first line caliber forward, 2.5 or 3 second liners, zero top-4 d-men besides himself, a goalie who is the model of inconsistency and no other NHL caliber goalies on the roster. With a coach who was in his first and last full season as an NHL head coach.

I don't think everyone recognizes what a bad situation he was in...the fact that he made a historical amount of chicken salad out of what could be charitably described as chicken feathers is incredible...

Though he was the first d-man in Hart voting in 2016 (and one of only two to receive more than one throwaway vote)...him finishing 9th is absurd in retrospect.

So he had a historical peak, just unreal...and unlike Burns or Carlson or Doughty or who fell because they didn't care anymore, or the situation wasn't amazing any longer...Karlsson had his achilles cut on a huge stage and that ate up some of what made him special. He actually had a really good resurgency this year, but was cut short by injury...

But a 4x First-Team All-Star at D, that's gonna be tough to keep out...I don't think anyone has that any position and isn't in off the top of my head...

[Gaucho]

Letang > Zubov, IMO.

tough, tough call ... I loved Zubov

[faftorial]

Letang > Zubov, IMO.

tough, tough call ... I loved Zubov

[Gaucho]

and I hated Kevin Hatcher.

[faftorial]

and I hated Kevin Hatcher.

I didn't like him when he was on the Caps.

[Gaucho]

TIL Letang set new career highs in assists and points this season.

[dodint]

TIL Letang set new career highs in assists and points this season.

That makes sense since he had his highest Time On Ice in his career this season.