mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

[Gaucho]

What would really help us would be an Islanders loss in regulation. Better yet, losing both in their home-and-home with the Rags.

[King Colby]

Win 3 of 4. Beat Isles and wings in regulation. As of right now that's not enough but I can see a world where it becomes enough.

[skullman80]

Win 4 of 4 and have there be no doubt.

[nocera]

[nocera]

Bookmark this for future use.

[King Colby]

That's unreal lol

[shoeshine boy]

awesome! I was listening to the Leafs radio guys in the car when that happened. they couldn't believe that there was no penalty at all. they said even if the puck did the damage, the Leaf player's stick clearly made contact.

[mikey]

I don't believe that's from the high stick situation...

It appears he's talking to a linesman...I think this is from the hand pass mid 3rd period that Crosby bodied down on the left wing boards. Linesmen are more likely to have that call. A linesman wouldn't review a high sticking penalty certainly.

Also, the TV timeout light is on at that scorer's table. They went to a break after the alleged hand pass in the 3rd. They couldn't go to a break late in the 2nd period as they already exhausted all of their breaks AND the Penguins were on the power play already if I recall...of course, you can't go to a break while a PP is in progress.

[shoeshine boy]

gotcha.
they still messed up that high sticking penalty.

[mikey]

I'm not sure if it did or didn't...but I'm surprised they had enough to say 'no, it didn't'...

[LeopardLetang]

It was definitely from the hand pass. Upon replay i didn't see anything that supported Crosby's case. But I assumed he was right.

[MR25]

Unrelated to the season at hand, but I was messing around looking at our drafts going back to the late 80s and moving forward.

Didn't realize/remember how far back the 3rd rounder we used for Guentzel went. Originally was Minnesota's, who traded it to Philly for Darroll Powe lol. Philly traded the pick and a 2nd to Dallas for Nick Grossman, and Dallas sent it to us in the Morrow for Morrow trade.

[meecrofilm]

I'm not going to look into it now, but I think goal differential is like the single most telling stat for being playoff caliber or not...

If I had my way, GD would be the #1 tiebreaker.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

also re: advanced stats, last night was a really good example of how the score/outcome doesn't always necessarily paint a picture of what the game looked/felt like qualitatively. I thought the Pens generally outplayed the Leafs and moneypuck's analysis agrees with that based on expected goals:

now, does it "matter"? of course not, at the end of the day whoever has the most goals matters. But we got one more in the loss column and one less in goal differential despite playing the better game. When trying to predict future success...that's why I value these advanced stats. They give you more information


now, also, one thing I feel like a lot of "anti-analytics" people don't realize is that analytics folks aren't just creating formulas for the fun of it. there are meta-analyses done and if a certain metric doesn't hold up to the smell test, it quickly gets discarded. Corsi/Fenwick wouldn't have gotten the backing it gotten if there wasn't some measure of correlation to success. But that also doesn't mean they're prefer either

it's hard to tell exactly all the stats line up with one another in terms of prediction playoff success, but this was a pretty good visualization:

https://broadstreetbuzz.com/2016/04/11/ ... ffs-stats/



this is a little bit older and doesn't include expected goal percentage but you can see that goal differential and Corsi/Fenwick are similarly correlated. Power play, funnily enough, seems to be really the odd stat out here. But in general, good teams will be good at everything including offense, defense and goaltending so a lot of these stats will give you similar results

[mac5155]

Bookmark this for future use.

I saw this on the broadcast and LOLd

[mikey]

Goal diff matters, confirmed. Sweet.

How........expected.

[mac5155]

That extra point last night be looking real fine right now

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

hoooly **** the flyers suck

[Rx6687]

hoooly **** the flyers suck

A late season collapse of epic proportions. 7 wins in their last 25 games, eight consecutive losses.

[stonewizard51]

Bookmark this for future use.

I saw this on the broadcast and LOLd

Me too. Wifey looked at me and asked did Sid just say what it looked like he said. I'm like yeah he did.

[King Colby]

4/9 Results:
WSH Regulation Win
DET Regulation Loss
PHI Regulation Loss in embarrassing fashion
NYI Regulation Win
BUF Regulation Loss
NJ Regulation Loss

Max points standings as of 4/9 (current regulation wins):

Islanders 95 (27 RW) - 4 GR
Washington 93 (29 RW) - 4 GR
----------------
Pens 92 (31 RW) - 4 GR
Detroit 92 (27 RW) - 4 GR
Philly 89 (28 RW) - 3 GR
NJ 85 (32 RW) - 3 GR
Buffalo 85 (31 RW) - 3 GR

4/10 games of note:
None

Control our own destiny? NO

[Gaucho]

PIT: DET, BOS, NSH, @NYI

NYI: MTL, @NYR, @NJ, PIT
WSH: @BUF, TB, BOS, @PHI
DET: @PIT, @TOR, MTL, @MTL

[skullman80]

We have the toughest schedule. If we win out and beat Det and NYI along the way....then that should do it no? At least the path of least resistance.

[Gaucho]

workflow

O’Connor-Crosby-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Rakell
Puustinen-Zohorna-Smith
Jesse-Carter-Bemstrom

Joseph-Letang
Pettersson-Karlsson
Shea-St. Ivany-Ludvig are rotating

[mikey]

Oh, no...