mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

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Postby NTP66 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:57 am

In what context, ntp...?
I figured you like going down these rabbit holes, so I was basically wondering 'who faced tougher opponents and goalies' between the two. There's no endgame here for me, it was just to continue the discussion. I'm biased and will always choose Crosby over McDavid, and am not afraid to admit that I prefer McDavid always coming up short. :)

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Postby the wicked child » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:28 am

Any thoughts on why the PK seems to be struggling so much this season? It seemed to me like they were allowing at least one PPG per game so I went back and looked and they have allowed at least one PPG in 12 of 15 games played this season.

Surprisingly, they did not allow any in the last Caps game, despite surrendering a ridiculous number of shots (13, iirc per Bob Grove)

And it isn't just that they are allowing them, but often it is very quick.

They are rocking a 73.5%, which is 26th in the league.

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Postby Gaucho » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:37 am

They sorely miss Jack Johnson.

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Postby meow » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:54 am

There is a little bit of a chicken and egg thing going on with goaltending and the PK.

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:25 am

Yeah, goaltending is a concern on the PK...it's not that the four in front of him are off the hook, but goals are going in from just straight on, standing still wrist shots this year...so if we're not making the usual saves, we're not gonna be making the saves against schematics...

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:32 am

In what context, ntp...?
I figured you like going down these rabbit holes, so I was basically wondering 'who faced tougher opponents and goalies' between the two. There's no endgame here for me, it was just to continue the discussion. I'm biased and will always choose Crosby over McDavid, and am not afraid to admit that I prefer McDavid always coming up short. :)
Hmm, I'm not sure I have a great answer for that...it's just too large of a gap of time to cover really. The schedule probably evened out over that large swath of time.

Neither player played much defense during the regular season in these first five years, so you can look at maybe who had better team support by looking at team defense, which would likely lead to wins...

Crosby 30th, 15th, 8th, 18th, 18th
McDavid 25th, 8th, 25th, 25th, 17th

I think the SoS or goalie stuff really has to have evened out over the regular season at this point...maybe we could look at playoffs, but three bottom five finishes in team defense suggests that McDavid has never been there haha

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:44 am

How good is Crosby on all time great list?

But he should be the best player since 2000 and perhaps no better player has entered the league since Jagr? Lidström has 7 Norris but no Hart, Lindros got destroyed...
First, defensemen almost never win Harts, that's not on Lidstrom. That's just the structure of things...

Crosby is hovering right around the 10th best player of all time for me...give or take a couple spots...

If you have the big 4, which are virtually untouchable...

1. Gretzky
2. Orr
3. Howe
4. Lemieux
[break]
5/6. Beliveau/Hull
7. Harvey

So now you can really start to probably consider Crosby depending on what you like...I'm big on defensemen, and not big on goalies...some people can make a space for Hasek or Roy up here, I can't...I have Lidstrom up here...I waver back and forth on Bourque being up here (sometimes his early defense really annoys me)...

I think I could go Lidstrom at 8, Crosby at 9...there's a case maybe for Red Kelly up here...I'm one of the few people on the planet that has Slava Fetisov up here, but he was the Doug Harvey of the Soviet teams, he was so good...then I have guys like Denis Potvin, Jaromir Jagr, Howie Morenz...but yeah, I think we're at a spot where Crosby has a good case for top 10 of all time...I can't see a scenario where he can get to 5 or 6 reasonably though...that's just such a tough nut to crack for me...

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Postby Jim » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:50 am

F Gordie Howe.

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:51 am

Shut up, stupid...

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Postby shmenguin » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:07 pm

let's say me and my buddy invented a sport where you throw a giant baseball into a basketball hoop on your driveway. we're the only ones who know about it, so we're de facto the best in the world at it. then we invite our tiny mailman friend over and he becomes the 3rd best player in the world at it.

then gradually over time more people start playing, but it's still not televised. so the little mailman still has a bit of an inside track to be part of "the league".

then it's televised regionally and gaining traction. not only is the little mailman being marginalized, but me and my buddy can barely even hang with these new players.

and whoa...now it's on TV, world wide. millions more players are playing, yes, but new strategies are also being developed...the game now relies more and more on athleticism...there's no singularly dominant player like i was 20 years ago when i invented it. statistics have plateaued. now i'm sort of a generic schlub, at best.

...but because i was in the game early when it was less physical, my career lasted twice as long as everyone who plays now and because i was able to dominate before the game became popular, my stats are outrageous. so therefore I am the best player of all time, even though I basically completely suck now.

_____________________________________________

1) Baseketball is still a great movie
2) **** Howe and all the old timers who capitalized on an immature system to claim a place in history that isn't going to be earned once it's all said and done


...sort of kidding on #2, but also not kidding

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Postby shafnutz05 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:39 pm

To my untrained eye, Ceci (and yes, Matheson) have been playing some pretty solid hockey lately.

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:01 pm

let's say me and my buddy invented a sport where you throw a giant baseball into a basketball hoop on your driveway. we're the only ones who know about it, so we're de facto the best in the world at it. then we invite our tiny mailman friend over and he becomes the 3rd best player in the world at it.

then gradually over time more people start playing, but it's still not televised. so the little mailman still has a bit of an inside track to be part of "the league".

then it's televised regionally and gaining traction. not only is the little mailman being marginalized, but me and my buddy can barely even hang with these new players.

and whoa...now it's on TV, world wide. millions more players are playing, yes, but new strategies are also being developed...the game now relies more and more on athleticism...there's no singularly dominant player like i was 20 years ago when i invented it. statistics have plateaued. now i'm sort of a generic schlub, at best.

...but because i was in the game early when it was less physical, my career lasted twice as long as everyone who plays now and because i was able to dominate before the game became popular, my stats are outrageous. so therefore I am the best player of all time, even though I basically completely suck now.

_____________________________________________

1) Baseketball is still a great movie
2) **** Howe and all the old timers who capitalized on an immature system to claim a place in history that isn't going to be earned once it's all said and done


...sort of kidding on #2, but also not kidding
I'm going to take your tale for what it's meaning as opposed to the fairy tale of it...

A couple of points...I've spent thousands of hours watching non-contemporary games going back to the 1920's to get a feel for when the game is good and not so good because not every era should be considered equally. I've read in between the lines of game stories and accounts from the time going back to the 1880's...I'm just one person, sure, but I believe I'm in a pretty unique position - through my knowledge and study - to make an educated judgment on these things...I know I have spent at least 10x the amount of time studying non-current games than any person here has spent on their higher education, for instance. Now, that and a dollar gets you the Sunday paper, but this is where I chose to excel.

I did chuckle at the "less physical" part, as the game grew out of its roughness into the game you see today...there has never been a less physical time in the history of the game. Generally speaking, the barbaric nature of the sport has wound down as the years of wound up...

Howe, in particular, wasn't a compiler...he's not the greatest because he played for 50 years...he was top-5 in scoring for over 20 straight seasons and has some of the most dominant seasons in history relative to his peers...it's not like a Ron Francis, who just hung around for a while while being pretty good in the perfect subset of time...

Howe played when it was incredibly hard to score. He faced a HOF goalie and/or a top-5 defenseman in the world most nights...it wasn't like Mario coming down on the expansion Sharks and dunking 10 points on them while he's untouched through them...

The best eras for hockey in terms of league quality are: ~1957-1967, 1987-1997, 2017-now, essentially. The baseketball stuff - and I actually drew a line in the sand against many in the historical community recently - is back in the 1890's, 1900's area...that was an immature game. Around 1910 it takes a big step forward, but again, how could were they really? How much stock could you really put in the first iteration? By the 1920's, the rules are really there, the league has been established for a while, we have film, we can see star players stand out from others for the first time...this falls in line with the non-baseball sports in terms of them starting to take shape.

Things ebb and flow, there's a depression, there's a war, rules are modified, etc. Once the war effort is over, and women are taken more fully into the workforce, there is more time for leisure activity (particularly for men)...the non-baseball games take massive steps forward in the 1950's because of this...football finally gets the forward pass moving, hockey is entering into its golden era, basketball adds the shot clock, etc. Sport proliferates. Soon after, other countries really start to get involved (notably, for hockey, the Soviet Union) and the game fully becomes global. This is all on Howe's watch...

I'll leave it there because I'm probably talking to a non-serious participant, but I'm willing to have this conversation further...

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Postby shmenguin » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:29 pm

my comment was very tongue-in-cheek, but thanks for playing along. the "physical" thing was stated poorly though. it's not a matter of physicality, it's a matter of conditioning required to play today vs pre-90's for example. there was wild variation in how players took care of themselves which led to more statistical anomalies in scoring. immature systems n'at.

i also don't think "relative to your peers" means what you want it to mean. no one's been able to outscore the #2 guy by 80 points since the 80's. what do you think that indicates? just pure dominance? like...you think it could happen today, it's just we haven't seen the rebirth of 99 yet? that you have McDavid getting 130, but there's some guy out there who could put up 210? toss that aside. it doesn't mean anything. not because it isn't impressive, but because it's so incredibly inapplicable to today.

the earlier you played, the bigger advantage you had in standing out. and i think that advantage still SIGNIFICANTLY existed in the 80's. certainly in Howe's eras. these days, things are streamlined. bell curves flattened out everywhere. you even see a guy like McDavid being outscored by his inferior teammate, it's so muddy.

maybe everything you're saying is right. i don't think you have the right models, though. and i think you heavily discount how shitty goalies were before the 90's. we talk about it a lot, i know. but that's only because it's a complete joke.

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Postby nocera » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:58 pm



Can we stop with those rumors now?

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Postby meow » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:04 pm

Did he have his fingers crossed?

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:51 pm

my comment was very tongue-in-cheek, but thanks for playing along. the "physical" thing was stated poorly though. it's not a matter of physicality, it's a matter of conditioning required to play today vs pre-90's for example. there was wild variation in how players took care of themselves which led to more statistical anomalies in scoring. immature systems n'at.

i also don't think "relative to your peers" means what you want it to mean. no one's been able to outscore the #2 guy by 80 points since the 80's. what do you think that indicates? just pure dominance? like...you think it could happen today, it's just we haven't seen the rebirth of 99 yet? that you have McDavid getting 130, but there's some guy out there who could put up 210? toss that aside. it doesn't mean anything. not because it isn't impressive, but because it's so incredibly inapplicable to today.

the earlier you played, the bigger advantage you had in standing out. and i think that advantage still SIGNIFICANTLY existed in the 80's. certainly in Howe's eras. these days, things are streamlined. bell curves flattened out everywhere. you even see a guy like McDavid being outscored by his inferior teammate, it's so muddy.

maybe everything you're saying is right. i don't think you have the right models, though. and i think you heavily discount how shitty goalies were before the 90's. we talk about it a lot, i know. but that's only because it's a complete joke.
Again, the opposite was true. A lost skill to the short shift game and expanded rosters is shift management. If you played like your hair was on fire, it was a negative, the game was more calculated...some guys made it work with that style: Lindsay, M.Richard, even Eddie Shack...but guys that were responsible like Beliveau had to realize who they were out against, where they were at in their shift, where you were at in your shift, etc. and make sure that you're remaining within the team concept and within your own abilities...

The game isn't stocks...they don't just go up forever haha. Things get lost in evolution too, valuable traits. The game became too fast for its own good in Tyler Kennedy's hey day...players would just go out there for 25 seconds at a time and run into the guy trying to create...the idea that that made for better hockey (because it was...faster...? I don't know what the mindset is) is a fallacy for me.

Similarly, the evolution into the two-goalie system in 1965. The NHL pushed that down and all the way down at the youth levels this was accepted practice. Except, at the youth level, maybe there wasn't requisite ice time or maybe there were scheduling issues that allowed for two goalies to be fully developed...that's why goaltending got worse as the 70's grew on, and into the 80's before the talent re-filled again. In the 50's and 60's goaltending was very good. Plante, Bower, Hall, those guys would have been absolutely dominant if they had played later. Dominant. So characterizing things as "before 90's" really creates this age-ist case that doesn't seem founded in any sort of research or viewing...it may call upon mid-80's hockey and then think that it applies backwards...that's a pretty sinister way of going about it because, again, the sport isn't linear...in goes through ebbs and flows...on a macro-level with the game itself and at the micro-level for positions and player types...these distinctions are crucial.

Medical technology (including nutrition) has advanced to the degree that players can extend their primes and play longer now, sure...but the thought these guys were a bunch of nerds running around out there feels like another poorly researched grenade...

Image

Image

Meanwhile, Crosby gets the luxury of skating right by this guy...

Image

I know those might be extreme examples. But going back even earlier, guys were playing entire 60 minute games. Goalies pads became wet and heavier as games wore on...it was bigger test of endurance. Most teams rolled two lines, with a third mixed in...there wasn't a lot of places to turn on a roster of 10+5, there were even fewer places to turn before the rosters expanded in the O6 era. Today, you win a faceoff, block one shot, and you're off the ice in 20 seconds and you didn't touch the puck...it's different and it's not at the expense of the guys that played in the 60's...

##

i also don't think "relative to your peers" means what you want it to mean. no one's been able to outscore the #2 guy by 80 points since the 80's. what do you think that indicates? just pure dominance? like...you think it could happen today, it's just we haven't seen the rebirth of 99 yet? that you have McDavid getting 130, but there's some guy out there who could put up 210? toss that aside. it doesn't mean anything. not because it isn't impressive, but because it's so incredibly inapplicable to today.

##

It means exactly what it means. Gretzky's the best of all time because he dominated in such a way - in part - in a wacky era. He proved his worth by completely lapping all comers when the league stunk, and then he proved it again by dominating when the league was more whole.

Sustained dominance...

Gordie Howe
1950-51: 23.26% scoring margin (86 to 66) Age: 22
1951-52: 19.75% scoring margin (86 to 69) Age: 23
1952-53: 25.26% scoring margin (95 to 71) Age: 24
1953-54: 17.28% scoring margin (81 to 67) Age: 25
1956-57: 4.49% scoring margin (89 to 85) Age: 28
1962-63: 5.81% scoring margin (86 to 81) Age: 34

Wayne Gretzky
1980-81: 17.68% scoring margin (164 to 135) Age: 19
1981-82: 30.66% scoring margin (212 to 147) Age: 20
1982-83: 36.73% scoring margin (196 to 124) Age: 21
1983-84: 38.54% scoring margin (205 to 126) Age: 22
1984-85: 35.10% scoring margin (208 to 135) Age: 23
1985-86: 34.42% scoring margin (212 to 141) Age: 24
1986-87: 40.98% scoring margin (183 to 108) Age: 25
1989-90: 9.15% scoring margin (142 to 129) Age: 28
1990-91: 19.63% scoring margin (163 to 131) Age: 29
1993-94: 7.69% scoring margin (130 to 120) Age: 32

Mario Lemieux
1987-88: 11.31% scoring margin (168 to 149) Age: 21
1988-89: 15.58% scoring margin (199 to 168) Age: 22
1991-92: 6.11% scoring margin (131 to 123) Age: 25
1992-93: 7.50% scoring margin (160 to 148) Age: 26
1995-96: 7.45% scoring margin (161 to 149) Age: 29
1996-97: 10.66% scoring margin (122 to 109) Age: 30

Bobby Orr
1969-70: 17.50% scoring margin (120 to 99) Age: 21
1974-75: 5.93% scoring margin (135 to 127) Age: 26

McDavid doesn't have the opportunity, within reason, to get to 200 points. That shouldn't be disqualifying in its own right. Gretzky made the best of the hand he was dealt, you adjust for era as you wish, and you come up with an idea. Frankly, Bobby Orr's 1970 is probably more impressive than any of Gretzky's seasons individually...even if the point totals themselves aren't quite as gaudy...

I have Crosby as a top 10 player of all time...from a binary point of view, he stinks...2 Art Rosses, 2 Harts, twice led the league in goals, once in assists...if there is no context applied, that player gets pretty easily swept aside...he's basically just Lindros with more playoff success, which is fine, it's a top 100 player, but it's like, I don't know, Frank Mahovlich territory? Elmer Lach? Whatever...I don't know this feels like you're taking a dismissively lazy few because you saw something that you didn't like in 1983.

By that logic, music has linearly and everything now is as good as it's going to get (or whatever) and because the 80's and 90's produced some absolutely trash that therefore the 60's and 70's stuff was bad...but we all know that's not true...in fact, once again, it's the opposite...

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Postby shmenguin » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:31 pm

were there guys smoking during intermission who were playing 60 minute games? trying to get an impression of what that argument means. like they were out there playing the whole game at a steady, relatively fast pace? or is it another anachronism with no bearing to today like "relative to peers", which doesn't make sense to submit into evidence.

the peer thing is disqualifying if it's about ranking across eras. if it's literally impossible in every way for someone to get 40% more points than the #2 guy, merely because of the dynamics of the league, then it's not an argument in Gretzky's favor. it tells me he was amazing. it doesn't tell me what he is vs mcdavid, however.

but whatever. the point-by-point thing is going nowhere. not because of your game film exposure. there's a philosophical issue with the quality of data. i don't think you're saying anything crazy of course.

the point of bringing it up is this - 99 will always be considered the best, even if he's not. it's really the most boring thing in the world that the hockey community will never give any oxygen to any challenger - despite any evidence that will come up. the NBA community moved on from Wilt. they know his era screwed up his stats and that the league wasn't evolved. so they look past the gaudy numbers and find better measurements. you're finding other measurements, but they aren't stacking up against your case for 99 - which I obviously find much flimsier than you.

and i'm not here to dump on those old eras. this is about who's the best. before my time on earth is up, i'd like to see someone other than the same top 4, but it ain't happening. and it's an inevitability, which is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:00 pm

I enjoy the historical comparisons including making top 10 lists but only if we agree that ultimately that it’s all pointless and to not invest too much time analyzing

There are too many variables and even if you isolate the variables people will have their own subjective takes on an unquantitative _why_. Also people refuse to admit that they’re biased towards players that they grew up watching/idolizing. I don’t think it’s as but if a problem in hockey but older people refuse to acknowledge Lebron, for example, as being in the same sentence as Jordan

Of the major sports, Gretzky has the most clear path to claiming GOATness, just by shear distance of point output. NFL I guess Brady has a similar argument but the argument is championships rather than in-game statistics (though I guess Jerry Rice has the clear GOAT claim for his position). Jack vs Tiger is close, Jordan vs Lebron is close, etc.

Mario had a chance to catch up with Gretzky but injuries suck

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:17 pm

were there guys smoking during intermission who were playing 60 minute games? trying to get an impression of what that argument means. like they were out there playing the whole game at a steady, relatively fast pace? or is it another anachronism with no bearing to today like "relative to peers", which doesn't make sense to submit into evidence.

the peer thing is disqualifying if it's about ranking across eras. if it's literally impossible in every way for someone to get 40% more points than the #2 guy, merely because of the dynamics of the league, then it's not an argument in Gretzky's favor. it tells me he was amazing. it doesn't tell me what he is vs mcdavid, however.

but whatever. the point-by-point thing is going nowhere. not because of your game film exposure. there's a philosophical issue with the quality of data. i don't think you're saying anything crazy of course.

the point of bringing it up is this - 99 will always be considered the best, even if he's not. it's really the most boring thing in the world that the hockey community will never give any oxygen to any challenger - despite any evidence that will come up. the NBA community moved on from Wilt. they know his era screwed up his stats and that the league wasn't evolved. so they look past the gaudy numbers and find better measurements. you're finding other measurements, but they aren't stacking up against your case for 99 - which I obviously find much flimsier than you.

and i'm not here to dump on those old eras. this is about who's the best. before my time on earth is up, i'd like to see someone other than the same top 4, but it ain't happening. and it's an inevitability, which is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Most of the "smoking during intermissions" stories happen in the shorter shift games. Players weren't playing as much. There is a disproportionate amount of those stories as the players played less, closer to today. Games were played at a pretty consistent pace from the 1920's to the end of the sponsorship era (late 70's, early 80's). The Flyers probably deserve a lot of "credit" for the short shift game that we have today. Fred Shero, Mike Keenan.

Peer thing can't be disqualifying across eras, in fact, that's the only mindful to do it. Again, you're getting caught up in a raw or relative number. It takes many layers of context to be applied to get there. This is not even surface level where we're at now, it's hovering above a concept. No one goes, "Well, Gretzky beat his guys by 40%, and McDavid by 8%, so Gretzky wins...next!" That's silly. You have to combine tons and tons of evidence to start drawing conclusions.

There are a number of folks in the historical community that think Orr, Howe, and Lemieux are the best as well. Confusing media/MIMH level/ESPN trash hurling is not in line with the folks who actually put in the work on this. Could McDavid be better than Gretzky? Maybe. He's off to a hell of a start. In fact, I'm on record (not here probably) as saying that if we got even 9 or 10 years of 1970 Bobby Orr, I'd rank him above 20 years of Gretzky. So Gretzky set a statistical bar that may never be toppled, and he is the majority favorite for #1 as it stands...but "moving on" from a player because it's inconvenient because I have a shiny new toy and have some cartoonish takes about what I didn't see is pretty wretched in this arena...just erasing history as we go along because of some flimsy moving target is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz indeed.

I can't help that four players from three different eras happened to dummy everyone to such a degree...maybe if Sid could have survived the softest time in history, he'd have challenged them...it just tells me that if he played in 1920 or 1950 that he wouldn't have lasted even as long as he did here...maybe 8 or 9 is too strong by your logic...

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Postby Gaucho » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:21 pm

good content here

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Postby mikey » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:21 pm

I enjoy the historical comparisons including making top 10 lists but only if we agree that ultimately that it’s all pointless and to not invest too much time analyzing
Wrong. 100% disagree. I take it extremely seriously and am a part of communities that do this, and works are published because they are superior to anything mainstream. It's as pointless as anything else that's done in life, sure. I find it to be more important than my 9 to 5 job and exert more effort into it because fewer people can operate like I do in this space than in my job space...
There are too many variables and even if you isolate the variables people will have their own subjective takes on an unquantitative _why_. Also people refuse to admit that they’re biased towards players that they grew up watching/idolizing. I don’t think it’s as but if a problem in hockey but older people refuse to acknowledge Lebron, for example, as being in the same sentence as Jordan
Subjective is positive in the right hands. Just like you want John Elway subjectively to select the best QB in the draft, just like you want Ron Hextall to subjectively draft the best d-man next draft...if you sort by yards or points, you'll just lose, almost every time. Subjective isn't a dirty word. You don't want some quantitative list because it's that list that becomes impossible to crack or as shmenguin said "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz".

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Postby Gaucho » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:23 pm

Jordan vs Lebron is probably closer than I care to admit.

shmenguin
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Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:37 pm
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mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

Postby shmenguin » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:37 pm

Jordan vs Lebron is probably closer than I care to admit.
Lebron is best at basketball. Jordan is the best basketball player.

Gaucho
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mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

Postby Gaucho » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:40 pm

Jordan vs Lebron is probably closer than I care to admit.
Lebron is best at basketball. Jordan is the best basketball player.
*chef's kiss*

shmenguin
Posts: 19041
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:37 pm
Location: people notice my car when its shined up

mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

Postby shmenguin » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:42 pm

What does McDavid need to do to overtake Gretzky?

He won’t win the cups
He won’t have the records
He won’t stand out against his peers in the same way

...and none of this is under his control

I know your rubric goes beyond this, but maybe inform the listeners at home that it IS possible despite these handicaps, and roughly how that might happen.

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