mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

[King Colby]

4/7 Results:
DET Regulation Win
BUF Regulation Loss
WSH OT Loss
NJ SO Loss

Max points standings as of 4/7 (current regulation wins):

Islanders 95 (26 RW) - 5 GR
Detroit 94 (27 RW) - 5 GR
----------------
Pens 93 (31 RW) - 5 GR
Washington 93 (28 RW) - 5 GR
Philly 91 (28 RW) - 4 GR
NJ 87 (32 RW) - 4 GR
Buffalo 87 (31 RW) - 4 GR

4/8 games of note:
PIT @ TOR

[meecrofilm]

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

wow I’m kind of amazed that we have the best goal differential of all the WC teams (+5). Not just that but other than Detroit (+3) all the other teams are significantly negative (Isles and Flyers are -23, Caps are -41)

I honestly think that goes to show that we’re a pretty good 5 on 5 team. That f*ckin power play though…

[Lemon Berry Lobster]

[willeyeam]

wow I’m kind of amazed that we have the best goal differential of all the WC teams (+5). Not just that but other than Detroit (+3) all the other teams are significantly negative (Isles and Flyers are -23, Caps are -41)

I honestly think that goes to show that we’re a pretty good 5 on 5 team. That f*ckin power play though…

We beat the Sharks bad that one time

[RonnieFranchise]

Creeps being in this with a -41 goal differential is something else.

[JC2]

Goal differential is a weird stat to look at (going back to our consistency/inconsistency discussion)...

The Caps are good at 2 things this year: winning one goal games and getting blown out.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

why do you think it’s a weird stat?


hockey is a difficult sport to analyze quantitatively because there’s generally a larger amount of luck involved with scoring. This is where Corsi/Fenwick come into play (in this context, Flyers are 8th in Corsi, Pens are 13th and then the other 3 WC hopefuls are 24th+) but obviously quality of shots is another difficult thing to honestly account for

I don’t think goal differential is that misleading of a stat. Of course in hockey no stat in perfect but I think generally a team with a bad differential but higher amount of points is what I would consider a luckier team. Not saying that they are bad necessarily but getting blown out often isn’t a good sign

[mikey]

I'm not going to look into it now, but I think goal differential is like the single most telling stat for being playoff caliber or not...

[LeopardLetang]

I think it's wins.

Sure blowouts and all but it's all the empty net goals.

But actually one thing the pens have seemed really good at is ending games with the goalie pulled. They gave up tons of third period leads but once the goalie is pulled crosby and company usually pot it.

While I'm here, St Ivany has looked really solid. Multiple times seeing him approach a battle with the "I'm going to take care of this" attitude and gets the puck and moves it.

[Rx6687]

Obviously the larger the gap is with stats like goal differential, the more telling it becomes. I mean, you can't really be lucky or unlucky for an entire 82-game season. It's really an anomaly that the Caps are where they are with a goal differential as lopsided as theirs.

A player's +/- can be unreliable, but typically when a team is giving up a ton more goals than they are scoring, it's an ugly win-loss record.

[King Colby]

I'm gonna have to agree that it's wins.

[mikey]

Yeah, well, then in that case you're wrong...and it's "points"...so you can kiss my grits. Either way, it makes Corsi look like a big sack of dog vomit (more data points != guaranteed better, more predictive - it's just more of a different thing)

Unrelated: Ryan Shea - who is apparently working in Canada for the first time - is a GTD because he's stuck at the border.

[NTP66]

Good, he can skip the game.

[mikey]

Well, if Ludvig is still down, that might not be great...

[King Colby]

I honestly thought corsi went away. I haven't heard much about it since Aston-reese was the second coming

[mikey]

It basically did once (almost) everyone realized what I (and some others) said from the beginning with it...what a fun time to be on the internet, thinking that the brand new (to them) stat was the key to all things hockey. The God Stat. And like all "advanced" stats for all time, it's been passed by...

[King Colby]

"Plus/minus is meaningless. I'd like to introduce you to the most important stat: plus/minus, but for shots."

[King Colby]

4/8 Results:
PIT OT Loss

Max points standings as of 4/8 (current regulation wins):

Islanders 95 (26 RW) - 5 GR
Detroit 94 (27 RW) - 5 GR
----------------
Washington 93 (28 RW) - 5 GR
Pens 92 (31 RW) - 4 GR
Philly 91 (28 RW) - 4 GR
NJ 87 (32 RW) - 4 GR
Buffalo 87 (31 RW) - 4 GR

4/9 games of note:
WSH @ DET (no OT plz...)
PHI @ MTL
TOR @ NJ
NYR @ NYI
BUF @ DAL

[Morkle]

So what’s the key metric then to predict good? Whether it’s team or individual player?

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

I like expected goals. It’s effectively Corsi with more inputs such as speed of the shot, location (high danger area, blue line, etc). Different sites calculate it differently but I like moneypuck’s ui so I use that . I would guess that, goal differential and point percentage would all have a strong correlation anyway

[meecrofilm]

So I guess ... Just root for 2 point game for WSH DET?

[willeyeam]

So I guess ... Just root for 2 point game for WSH DET?

Technically probably Detroit fans in regulation tomorrow, since we get our chance with them. I think

[mikey]

Yeah, I guess...

On one hand...our division has a spot, so Washington losing improves our chances for that. And then we control two of Detroit's future points to make that up. But we're really 2.5 points behind Detroit. Hard to say. Overtime is obviously the worst outcome.

[King Colby]

If Detroit beats Washington and pens win out, pens get in.

If Washington beats Detroit and both pens and Washington win out, Washington gets in.