mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

mikey
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Postby mikey » Fri May 20, 2022 5:47 pm

Going off script...?

Pavel Bure
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Postby Pavel Bure » Fri May 20, 2022 7:49 pm

Going off script...?
Are you purposely being obtuse? Geno doesn’t follow the game plan laid out by the coach a good amount of the time. That’s not something new I’m putting out there.

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Postby meow » Fri May 20, 2022 8:24 pm

Yeah but he’s not expected to

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Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Fri May 20, 2022 8:32 pm

The case for giving Kapanen a qualifying offer:
Qualifying offers are one-year in length, and there are minimum requirements when it comes to what a qualifying offer must include. If a player's base salary in the prior season is at least $1 million, the qualifying offer must be worth at least 100% of what that prior base salary was. If the base salary the prior year was less than $1 million, then the qualifying offer must be worth 105% of that previous base salary, with the stipulation that the qualifying offer can't exceed $1 million. For players with at least 180 total NHL games over the last three seasons, or 60 games in the previous season, or a player who did not clear waivers the previous season, the qualifying offer also must be for a one-way deal.

The key term in the above stipulations when it comes to money is "base salary." Not average annual value, or cap hit.

Kapanen's expiring contract was worth $9.6 million total over three years, and a large chunk of that -- $6.24 million, to be exact -- was paid out in signing bonuses. That is included when calculating a player's average annual value and cap hit, but is separate from a player's base salary.

Kapanen's base salary varied slightly over the three years of his contract. But his base salary in the final year of his contract? Just $800,000.

That means that if the Penguins were to extend Kapanen a qualifying offer, it would have to be between $840,000 and $1 million in value, for one year, one-way.

Kapanen at that value is suddenly pretty appealing.

Now, what happens if the Penguins do make that qualifying offer?

Kapanen doesn't have to sign the qualifying offer. Extending the qualifying offer only ensures that the Penguins retain Kapanen's rights. He certainly could sign that qualifying offer and play on that contract, or he and the Penguins could continue to negotiate. Once the July 13 free agency window opens, other teams could extend Kapanen an offer sheet for any length or value of contract. If another team does submit an offer sheet and Kapanen accepts it, the Penguins could either match that offer sheet and sign Kapanen to that same contract, or they could refuse, and Kapanen would sign with the other team, and the other team would have to pay the Penguins draft pick compensation if the average annual value of the contract exceeds $1,386,490.

The Penguins would also have the option of trading Kapanen's rights if they make that qualifying offer to retain the rights.

If the Penguins extend the qualifying offer and Kapanen doesn't receive any offer sheets, he would have until Dec. 1 of next season to sign a deal with the Penguins or be ruled ineligible to play for the remainder of the season.

Kapanen does have salary arbitration rights this offseason, but if he would elect salary arbitration, he would be ineligible to receive any offer sheets. And if he did take that gamble and elect arbitration anyway, it's hard to imagine that he'd command much in a hearing given his struggles last season.

With all of these factors in mind, extending an offer sheet to Kapanen is an appealing prospect. Either the Penguins keep Kapanen at an incredibly affordable rate for a year, or he becomes a piece that could bring the Penguins a small return in the form of a trade or potential draft pick compensation.
https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2022 ... amount-tlh

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Postby mikey » Fri May 20, 2022 8:52 pm

Going off script...?
Are you purposely being obtuse? Geno doesn’t follow the game plan laid out by the coach a good amount of the time. That’s not something new I’m putting out there.
Not so much being obtuse, but I'm trying to narrow exactly where you're going with this...it really sounds like it's, "just produce, but don't play the game that allows you to produce" - which is a really tough ask. Malkin is a unique skill player. If you don't want his unique skillset, then you don't want him...

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Postby willeyeam » Fri May 20, 2022 8:53 pm

I think that's what he's saying..

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Postby mikey » Fri May 20, 2022 8:55 pm

A) Obviously you qualify Kapanen, who in the hell wouldn't do that?
B) lol at the offer sheet talk
C) Isn't that outdated information? I thought they changed the QO rules to base it around cap hit because teams were poison pilling their own contracts (or in a rare case, offer sheet)...

Either way. You obviously qualify KK, don't just throw a trade asset in the garbage for no reason...

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Postby Dickie Dunn » Fri May 20, 2022 9:29 pm

Capfriendly puts his QO at 840k.

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Postby mikey » Fri May 20, 2022 9:51 pm

I just looked up the rule change. It was legit just to stop the poison pill stuff. So it's 120% of the AAV or the last year salary, whichever is less...

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Postby willeyeam » Fri May 20, 2022 10:10 pm

Is our best hope to offer him and hope for an offer sheet

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Postby scb147 » Fri May 20, 2022 10:54 pm

With KK's play over the last half of the season, I'm sure there will be tons of offer sheets coming in

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Postby mikey » Fri May 20, 2022 11:03 pm

Our best hope is probably that he signs for cheaper than his current deal for one year and he finds his game here...his trade value with the arbitration hassle isn't likely to be there...even if the award probably won't be anything special...

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Postby King Colby » Fri May 20, 2022 11:21 pm

Losing that series was a **** travesty

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Postby MR25 » Sat May 21, 2022 12:47 am

Idk I'd be willing to entertain trades for Kapanen's rights, if you don't think he's capable/willing to buy in nd put it all together

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Postby mikey » Sat May 21, 2022 12:59 am

Everyone on the planet would...but is the value there to justify the move...? What if you can just get a 3...? Who cares about getting that...?

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Postby willeyeam » Sat May 21, 2022 8:43 am

You just called him a trade asset a few posts ago and now his return is meaningless. Doesn't sound like much of an asset then

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Postby mikey » Sat May 21, 2022 10:26 am

Come on guys, we've been through enough offseasons together. Let's go through the approximate life cycle of trade value in this situation.

Now = Minimal. Potential RFA with arb rights coming off of a brutal year.
No QO = Zero. Becomes UFA.
Tendered = Minimal. Arb rights is something teams generally don't want to deal with, especially because they'd have to deal with less negative information as a club - KK didn't play for the acquiring team.
Settled/completed arb case = Rising, assuming a reasonable trade value.

I'm going to put on my dual-acting arbitration hat and use Andreas Athanasiou as the contract comparable here. Last offseason, he had five years of NHL experience (Kapanen now has 5). Generally a 30-40 point player (AA had that one 30 goal year, KK a 20 goal year). Both are similar in that they use speed and technical skill to create limited vision chances. Both lack hockey sense. Both have been questionable teammates in the past.

AA came off of a 10+13=23 in 47 season. Kap is coming off 11+21=32 in 79. That's both between 0.4 and 0.5 pts per game.

AA got 1 yr, $2.7 mil. Probably fair to assume KK wouldn't get too much less than Lekhonen's $2.3 mil nor more than AA's $2.7 mil. I'm assuming that we settle for something close to that and it doesn't get all the way to arb.

Signed 1 yr, $2.5 mil = Now, we've cleared all of the hoopla and uncertainty and the real manpower/manhours that go into an arb case. Now, he's back to being a pure hockey asset and we can see what the value is out there...if any, of course. Not all teams that have done their homework on Kap want him. But, as we've seen, there are some teams that will take on whatever and make it work (Carolina, for instance).

Then, the real gamble...

Start the season playing really well = Trade value goes way up (relatively speaking), but then if he's playing well, do you really want to trade him?

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Postby King Colby » Sat May 21, 2022 11:30 am

AA is a good comparison

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Postby Lelldorin » Sat May 21, 2022 12:08 pm

Solid post Mikey.

Re Letang: Yes, I would give him 5x9 as my last offer. If he wants more, he is gone

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Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Sat May 21, 2022 8:14 pm


willeyeam
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Postby willeyeam » Sat May 21, 2022 8:34 pm


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Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Sat May 21, 2022 8:38 pm


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Postby King Colby » Sat May 21, 2022 8:45 pm

LFG great deal

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Postby willeyeam » Sat May 21, 2022 8:45 pm

That's fine with me

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Postby Orlando Penguin » Sat May 21, 2022 8:45 pm

A nice hometown discount for sure, just don't know about the 6 years.


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