Making It Interesting (Sports Betting Thread)

Postby **dodint** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 4:14 pm

Wow, just one of those weeks.

Hoyer hail mary 0:00 on the clock, lose bet.
Bills win but don't cover 3pts, lose bet.
Saints garbage time TD down by 29 with 0:00 on the clock, lose bet.

This will be the first week I'm under .500.

Postby **dodint** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:15 pm

*bomb drop whistle*

or

*fartnoise*

Take your pick. 1/6 this week. Just, ugly.

I thought for sure the Dallas/New England game was safe, figured it would be 34-17 or so. Down by three scores, Jason Garrett? Better hand it off some more.

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:29 pm

*bomb drop whistle*

or

*fartnoise*

Take your pick. 1/6 this week. Just, ugly.

I thought for sure the Dallas/New England game was safe, figured it would be 34-17 or so. Down by three scores, Jason Garrett? Better hand it off some more.

On the other hand, I did really well.

only lost bet is Bills in my 3 team parlay. Otherwise, I won Bears +9, Pats -10, Broncos -5, Bills-Packers-Patriots-Broncos Teaser and Broncos-Patriots parlay.

Postby **dodint** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:33 pm

Cool. My losses were close, not going to sweat it. Two were by touchdowns that never should have happened and meant nothing to the game.

Going to take a break for a while. Carry the torch.

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:36 pm

does bovada allow you guys to parlay the same game?

I'm trying to do 9ers moneylien and the under but 5dimes won't let me. Trying to figure out why

Postby **Craig** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 8:28 pm

Yes i parlay the moneyline or spread with the o/u on almost every bet.

Postby **Craig** » Mon Oct 12, 2015 6:32 pm

This is looking like a prop only game. I think the o/u is well set and while i think the steelers are better even behind vick, they suck at going to the west coast.

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:02 am

I took Steelers -4 with the 46 under. My bets were good pretty much all game, but it got scary there at the end. There were 17 total points going into 4Q, and then they scored 27. Unreal. Had it gone into OT and Chargers won by TD I would've lost both.

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 11:30 am

I picked up the Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver. Not specifically about betting but I read it's critical to understand for successful gamblers.

Should be interesting either way.

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 11:39 am

I think Football Outsiders recommends that Silver book, I haven't read it myself.

The book I referenced earlier was Smart Sports Betting by Matt Rudnitsky. Very casual style, uses the Broncos in a lot of his examples. Was dirt cheap in Kindle format, like $2.99 or something.

I just added Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won by L. Jon Wertheim and Tobias Moskowitz. It's not really a betting book, it's basically Freakonomics for sports. Written by an economist and a sports writer in the same way that Freakonomics was written. Looking forward to reading through it.

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:26 pm

Wtf. The Broncos-Browns line is only -4.5. I suggest everyone jump on that

Postby **Craig** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:28 pm

Yeah the browns should easily cover -4.5

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:28 pm

Which team is favored?

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:29 pm

>.<

Also, Haden will be out with a concussion

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:37 pm

Also, Pats -9 @Indy is absolutely delicious

Postby **Craig** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 5:42 pm

Hopefully there is an alternate line for pats-12or 13

Postby **Algernon** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:16 pm

Kings over Canucks
Rangers over Winnipeg
Predators over Devils
Panthers over hurricanes
Lightning over red wings
Stars over oilers

My 6 game parlay for tonight

Postby **Algernon** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:17 pm

I also have flames over blues and penguins over Canadiens for a two gamer

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:31 pm

I'm prop'ing the Pens game. MAF over 27.5 saves and Kunitz over 2 shots. Of course, this will be the game he's not on the top PP squad.

Pens are favored and even though I assume MTL will win, I don't have the heart to put money on it.

Postby **Craig** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:35 pm

I put 4.44 on mets winning.

Postby **Algernon** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 7:15 pm

I'm prop'ing the Pens game. MAF over 27.5 saves and Kunitz over 2 shots. Of course, this will be the game he's not on the top PP squad.

Pens are favored and even though I assume MTL will win, I don't have the heart to put money on it.

I can't bet against my favorite teams but I for sure wasn't going to let the penguins bust my 6 gamer again.

So I just put them in a 2 gamer

Postby **Algernon** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:29 pm

Kings over Canucks
Rangers over Winnipeg
Predators over Devils
Panthers over hurricanes
Lightning over red wings
Stars over oilers

My 6 game parlay for tonight

I changed the capitals the sharks whenever I saw ovie was out.

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 13, 2015 9:37 pm

Source of the post MAF over 27.5

30 shots, Fleury lets in 3. Two of which a ham sandwich could've stopped. Thanks, guy.

Postby **dodint** » Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:03 am

Source of the post MAF over 27.5
30 shots, Fleury lets in 3. Two of which a ham sandwich could've stopped. Thanks, guy.

Super fun fact, and a word of caution.

My book doesn't know/care about the difference between Shots Against and Saves. So since Fleury faced 30 shots, I won the over. The fact that he let three in doesn't seem to matter to them.

If they change their mind and debit my account, I won't complain. But I did bet a football prop in Week2 and the system 'lost' it, and I won that bet but got nothing. So I call it even. I do feel bad for everyone that took the under and lost, though. I assume if enough people complain they'll either reverse it or they'll just pay better attention in the future.

I say this to humblebrag, and also warn you that if you want to bet the o/u on stuff like saves at the book I use, factor in the idea that they're not very good at hockey. Perhaps the inefficiencies I spoke about earlier are much more drastic than I expected. Bettor beware.

For anyone that wants to parse the exact verbiage:

(Win)
Hockey - NHL - Total saves in the game - Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) - Match
Montreal Canadiens @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Over M +27.5 (1.87), Oct 13/15@7:00p (Win)
Must start for action

NHL.com clearly has Fleury with 30 SA and 27 Saves.

Postby **Craig** » Wed Oct 14, 2015 12:16 am

That explains a win of mine that didn't make sense from saturday.