Making It Interesting (Sports Betting Thread)

Postby **dodint** » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:31 pm

Football is so rigid and follows a formula/script so that so much comes down to execution. I was right about the first half under, and the full game o/u is sitting on a push. The Ryan over 23.5 completions was easy. And the Saints over 1.5FG was also easy. The Saints got three attempts for FGs, and Hocker missed two of them. It's just frustrating when the logic you spend time devise works out and then it falls apart at the individual player execution phase. I know that's part of it but man is it weaksauce. Betting on hockey is a lot more fun because the game is more fluid.

Oh, cool. Saints pass on a 4th (Iong) field goal try with 31 seconds left. Yeah. Awesome. Don't want to destroy the confidence of that guy you're about to cut by sending him out there for a try.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:37 am

I went against the traditional Thursday-under formula on a hunch...over 52.5...that'll show me...

Postby **dodint** » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:42 am

You were Hocker'd.

Postby **Algernon** » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:09 pm

Ducks over Avs
Blues over Canucks
Blue jackets over Leafs
Kings over wild
Sharks over Devils
Red wings over hurricanes

6gamer to win a stack of high society

Let's go baby

Postby **dodint** » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:39 pm

I took the under in that Wings game and the under in Cam Ward saves.

Postby **Algernon** » Fri Oct 16, 2015 8:25 pm

Jackets busted my parlay already

Lol

What a sorry team

Postby **dodint** » Fri Oct 16, 2015 9:05 pm

4 goal 2nd period didn't help me. Sitting on a push now but 21 minutes to go.

Postby **Craig** » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:31 pm

I had a great day yesterday. Lost a $20 michigan bet, but won a notre dame and fsu parlay, also $10 on each of those games individually, and finallt the big papa notre dame tcu clemson (void), baylor parlay.

Postby **dodint** » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:35 pm

Nice, congrats. CFB is murky water for me.

I've still only lost one bet on hockey. Last night I took the under in the NSH/OTT game and they beat it by one. Oh well.

I went all-in on the Pats spread tonight, so expect them to lay an egg.

Postby **Craig** » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:55 pm

College football seems like a layup to me. Formula is basically bet on the ranked home team or a ranked road team if the spread is 1td or less. Through 3 weeks of doing it now that michigan game is the first loss ive had and that clemson game was my first push. Im not going to mess with over under in those games though.

Also i should clarify that i know nothing about college football so this could be a run of luck. Ive been basically looking at standings and points for and against for each team to make my decisions.

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Sun Oct 18, 2015 5:01 pm

I got Falcons -3.5

this, along with the Pats and Broncos are "MIMH's best bets"
haha

Hahahahahahahahahahaha whoops

If the Pats and Giants cover I'll only be -$25 this week

Postby **dodint** » Sun Oct 18, 2015 5:07 pm

I'm having my best NFL week in a while. Picked the Browns to cover, Skins/Jets to go over, and the over on Thursday.

Played a nice little prop in the Packer game (Rodgers over 22.5 completions) and then have a biggie on with the Pats covering that wicked spread.

Postby **Craig** » Sun Oct 18, 2015 6:49 pm

Im gonna have the pats covering. Have the packers failed to cover yet this season? I think this will be the first time they cost me money.

Postby **dodint** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:23 am

Pick either the garbage time Luck TD or the Brady pick six. Either one cost me that bet. I might stick to hockey for a while.

Postby **dodint** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:36 pm

I have a real gambling problem (no, not that kind).

My win rate is quite respectable. I haven't tabulated the last weeks work but I reckon I'm between 65-75%. But every time I make a bet that is a big bet for me, I lose. I can take a small amount of money and multiply it by 4-6x reliably. But when I make a bet that is 2-3x more than my normal bet, I lose every single time. It's been this way for me all year. I'm not sure if I'm reaching too much with the bigger bets hoping to accelerate through that barrier and get over the hump or what. Just aggravating that I can reliably build a bankroll to that number and then just as reliably throw it away immediately.

I think I'm going to have to impose a cap on myself based on the size of the bankroll. Make my max bet and/or standard bet based on the total value of my cash position. For each $100 up the max bet by 10% or something. It would be a safety valve against things like the Colts garbage time crap or Rodgers and his receiving corps deciding to take the day off.

It's just uncanny how I always lose the big ones. Every time.

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:16 pm

this week is not great-looking week in terms of spreads. I'm going with the Jets -9, Panthers -3.5, Browns +5, Falcons -4 and Vikings -3

Postby **dodint** » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:32 pm

I'm taking the week off. Might be done with NFL completely. Still working on my NHL algorithm.

Postby **Beveridge** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:16 am

If there's one thing I know about Carolina, this week is let down week.

Postby **Craig** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:46 pm

Steelers should be a layup this week.

Ill take indy cleveland and then probably arizona plus the over.

Taking memphis-11 and over 77 tonight

Postby **dodint** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:03 pm

I think I finished this NHL formula. Going to test it against the 12 Saturday games tomorrow. If I come back 9/12 or better I'll be really excited.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:13 pm

I think I finished this NHL formula. Going to test it against the 12 Saturday games tomorrow. If I come back 9/12 or better I'll be really excited and be happy to share it with mikey so that he can become rich, rich as an astronaut

Gee, thanks, dodint!

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:16 pm

I think I finished this NHL formula. Going to test it against the 12 Saturday games tomorrow. If I come back 9/12 or better I'll be really excited and be happy to share it with mikey so that he can become rich, rich as an astronaut. And MIMH too because he's really cool and I definitely don't think he's an annoying sh*t!
Gee, thanks, dodint!

I know right? man's a saint

Postby **dodint** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:18 pm

I wouldn't want to be responsible for you degenerates blowing your bank roll.

Postby **Craig** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:43 pm

Had a clemson and the over bet...clemson shut them out and took care of the over on their own.

Have an all moneylines bet with texas pitt fsu clemson and penn state that is just waiting on fsu.

10 to win ~35 for each of those.

Have 20 on stanford-14 or so tonight.

Postby **dodint** » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:47 pm

Source of the post Had a clemson and the over bet...clemson shut them out and took care of the over on their own.

That's always fun. Good stuff.