One Week Fantasy Leagues

Postby **Craig** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:00 am

Yeah i got **** out this week...actually i made the london games under by 1 point.

Postby **Troy Loney** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:12 am

Glad I cashed out my winnings from week 2 and didn't try to get into some big money games.

I'm down to $12, i'm going to go into just small games the next two weeks to try and win playing money for the rest of the year.

As for this week, was right on Clay at TE and Hopkins. Dalton and Karlos Williams were decent production for the price. But got killed by having Randall Cobb, Odell and Steve Smith in my lineup.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:13 am

Same. Got my hopes up... (at Craig)

Personal betting related:

Postby **Craig** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:16 am

I fortunately only put $9 into daily fantasy this week.

Postby **dodint** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 2:49 pm

I don't understand that promo, mikey. If anyone hits the parlay, everyone splits the pot. Wut?

Lions over 1.5 FG is playing 3.00 right now. I put a nice wager on that. I imagine there will be at least two stalled drives in that game. I'm not a huge prop guy but that looked better than any of the actual game lines.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Yeah, it reads very weird. But I don't care. My parlay was very reasonable (as reasonable 7-leg parlays get) and $5 paid $500 something...so that plus whatever screwjob "bonus" they'll give me on top of that for their pretty obscure, specifically-worded, but poorly-described promo is fine with me...

You love dem feal goal props...

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:55 pm

Eagles and Broncos didn't cover and the Cardinals didn't cover their teaser, so I got porked this weekend.

And then I made it worse by adding a bet on the Broncos scoring over 26.5 during the game.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:56 pm

I actually yanked Minnesota +7 out of my original parlay last minute...I thought Denver would win, but close...because both teams can play defense...

Postby **Troy Loney** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:47 am

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/05/draftkin ... ports.html

yikes

A spokesman for DraftKings acknowledged that employees of both companies had won big jackpots playing at other daily fantasy sites. Late Monday, the two companies temporarily barred their employees from playing games or taking part in tournaments at any other site; they already had prohibited their employees from playing on their own company sites.

Postby **Craig** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:53 am

Can someone explain to me how you get an advantage with advance knowledge about anything with these leagues? Unless he was playing some type of game i dont play incant figure it out.

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:55 am

If you know who the bulk of the field has chosen, and you can pick anyone else that does the same or better you have an advantage on the majority and will probably cash. If you craft your whole lineup this way you'll probably place very high. Basically playing matchups vs. the field.

Postby **Kraftster** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:57 am

There's advantage to that, yes. The task of doing what you describe is much easier said than done, though. Or, the volume of entries required to make the task easy is prohibitive.

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:10 pm

*shrug*

The original article from a few weeks ago said people were playing 680 entries a week. It's the biggest reason I quit, just too much 'gaming' of the system for me.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:13 pm

The guys that win these things have a ton of statistical formulas and metrics and things and they basically moneyball this x1000...so you just look at the guys who win all the time and steal their lineups...

The first thing I would do if I had this info is look at the guy that has won $2.5 million in the past 12 months and steal the bulk of his lineup...

Postby **Craig** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:16 pm

If you know who the bulk of the field has chosen, and you can pick anyone else that does the same or better you have an advantage on the majority and will probably cash. If you craft your whole lineup this way you'll probably place very high. Basically playing matchups vs. the field.

They said he had the information he had before the week started. The games arent even available for people to join then, are they?

Postby **Craig** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:17 pm

Either way i just withdrew all of my money.

Postby **columbia** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:20 pm

Data mining is a skill, so it should be all good.

Postby **dodint** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:22 pm

If you know who the bulk of the field has chosen, and you can pick anyone else that does the same or better you have an advantage on the majority and will probably cash. If you craft your whole lineup this way you'll probably place very high. Basically playing matchups vs. the field.
They said he had the information he had before the week started. The games arent even available for people to join then, are they?

I dunno, man. I stopped playing Wk3.

Postby **tifosi77** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:14 pm

The thing's that's genuinely shocking is that neither company apparently had any policy in place addressing employees using competing websites. (I'd be staggered if they were allowed to use their own sites to play)

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:16 pm

The guys that win these things have a ton of statistical formulas and metrics and things and they basically moneyball this x1000...so you just look at the guys who win all the time and steal their lineups...

The first thing I would do if I had this info is look at the guy that has won $2.5 million in the past 12 months and steal the bulk of his lineup...

I don't think historical tendencies mean anything in this case.

It's moneyball but in a different way. These guys probably picked Devonta Freeman two weeks ago for his first 3 TD performance (when no one picked him) and then didn't take Freeman this last week (when everyone picked him).

It's kind of like betting a spread. If a team gets 85% of the public bets, the sharps are the smart ones who pick against the public (I'm guessing player cost in daily fantasy moves similarly to a game spread...the more people that take a guy, the higher his cost is)

Postby **Troy Loney** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:20 pm

I would never enter one of those big money tournament games on the site (i assume that's how these people win the big money). that'd be like buying a lottery ticket in a rigged lottery drawing.

That said, i can see why this information would be advantageous for the data miners and especially in the single game challenges. But that wouldn't really mean much in the small 5-20 person games that I tend to stick to. Either way, I put in $25 last year and ended the season up maybe $10. And this year i'm up a bunch and already cashed the winnings out.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:33 pm

The guys that win these things have a ton of statistical formulas and metrics and things and they basically moneyball this x1000...so you just look at the guys who win all the time and steal their lineups...

The first thing I would do if I had this info is look at the guy that has won $2.5 million in the past 12 months and steal the bulk of his lineup...
I don't think historical tendencies mean anything in this case.

It's moneyball but in a different way. These guys probably picked Devonta Freeman two weeks ago for his first 3 TD performance (when no one picked him) and then didn't take Freeman this last week (when everyone picked him).

It's kind of like betting a spread. If a team gets 85% of the public bets, the sharps are the smart ones who pick against the public (I'm guessing player cost in daily fantasy moves similarly to a game spread...the more people that take a guy, the higher his cost is)

It's not about "historical tendencies" per se, but the best guys have all of these statistical models and they spend their tweaking these lineups and entering in the best combinations possible...it's not just a bunch of you and me's that are going "Hope that Karlos Williams hits today..." this is all very calculated...it's a full-time endeavor for these guys...

Postby **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:40 pm

The guys that win these things have a ton of statistical formulas and metrics and things and they basically moneyball this x1000...so you just look at the guys who win all the time and steal their lineups...

The first thing I would do if I had this info is look at the guy that has won $2.5 million in the past 12 months and steal the bulk of his lineup...
I don't think historical tendencies mean anything in this case.

It's moneyball but in a different way. These guys probably picked Devonta Freeman two weeks ago for his first 3 TD performance (when no one picked him) and then didn't take Freeman this last week (when everyone picked him).

It's kind of like betting a spread. If a team gets 85% of the public bets, the sharps are the smart ones who pick against the public (I'm guessing player cost in daily fantasy moves similarly to a game spread...the more people that take a guy, the higher his cost is)
It's not about "historical tendencies" per se, but the best guys have all of these statistical models and they spend their tweaking these lineups and entering in the best combinations possible...it's not just a bunch of you and me's that are going "Hope that Karlos Williams hits today..." this is all very calculated...it's a full-time endeavor for these guys...

yeah.

my dream job would be something like this or to become a Vegas sharp. I have a strong math background (degree in physics, work as a software engineer) but I don't know where I would start.

YouTube · Postby **mikey** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:44 pm

Start by correlating plays (and their situations) to fantasy point output.

i.e. Running backs that output the most fantasy points are those that are given the most carries on 2nd and 3rd downs when the score is within 16 points.

or

WRs that are projected to get the most under-contested red zone targets against the highest vegas line...

The creation of statistical models is crucial for the big bucks in these DFS...I sit there and play it like an amateur and I know it...I do it for the fun of it, but if you actually wanted to get real foldin' money, you gotta up your game 1,000,000 fold...

Postby **Kraftster** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:29 pm

Checking out hockey scoring. Holy crap is DK a mess. This scoring system seems to be intentionally designed to increase volatility.

I expect I'll be playing FD hockey.