Search found 3443 matches

by Tomas
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:36 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

What does FiveThirtyEight say? I think in their updates, 538 people generally agree with the prediction markets: - that the D candidate in NV gets much greater shares of newly-counted votes - that the D candidate in AZ Gov race is facing more uncertainty because even though the rural counties are m...
by Tomas
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:07 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

AZ Governor still a perfect toss-up, but percentages turning blue - 56% D. D chances to control the Senate now at 95% (mainly because NV is now 85% victory for D, despite D candidate trailing by 1% in actual voting). And the November 2022 future President of the USA is Ron DeSantis with 30%, ahead o...
by Tomas
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:15 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Lake is going to win AZ I refuse to believe this until Tomas tells me people are betting her at at least 94%. 71-29 right now. :) https://electionbettingodds.com/GovernorsMap2022.html And, BTW, the chances of D controlling the Senate slightly shrunk from yesterday (from 80% to 75%) because all the ...
by Tomas
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:39 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

TIL that John Boozman just became the first Arkansas Republican in history who got elected to the Senate three times. In an interview, Boozman described the state's evolution from Democrat to Republican as "amazing." Earlier in his time on Capitol Hill, "I was the only [Republican] official higher t...
by Tomas
Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:23 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Lake is going to win AZ I refuse to believe this until Tomas tells me people are betting her at at least 94%. 71-29 right now. :) https://electionbettingodds.com/GovernorsMap2022.html And, BTW, the chances of D controlling the Senate slightly shrunk from yesterday (from 80% to 75%) because all the ...
by Tomas
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

That didn't take long https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1590359837896048640?t=vGqAItNCAE0sdIos7Oshgw&s=19 Between yesterday and today, DeSantis gained 12% (currently at 27%) as the next President in election betting markets. Trump lost 14% (currently at 18%). In terms of parties, Democrats picked ...
by Tomas
Wed Nov 09, 2022 1:30 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

The Dems could also flip Wisconsin. Not much publicity for that race, but that's a super-close race ATM, and there are a lot of votes left in Milwaukee, which heavily leans D. Does Arizona have some thing where they count half the votes just say, "Whew, that's enough for tonight"? People are tradin...
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:51 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Chances of 2024 Presidency on https://electionbettingodds.com/:

Trump -3.3% in last day
DeSantis +5.9% in last day
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:32 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Harvard BA
U Penn MD
U Penn MBA
Columbia U Professor

+ good looking, comfortable with being on TV...

If you told me a random guy with credentials like these would lose... :o
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:01 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Funny oddity in prediction markets now: point estimate 51-49 Republicans. Chances of controlling the Senate: 65% Democrats...
(which is completely rational given the small relative chance of Rs winning both GA and NV, despite being current favorites in both races).
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:39 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Better than polls is not a very high bar. But absent NYT "needle", this is the best system we have - immediate aggregation of prevalent sentiment in real time, and in order to speak, one has to put real money where his/her mouth is. What's better than that? (I just wish US Govt did not kill Intrade...
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:31 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - ...
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:26 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Well, https://electionbettingodds.com/ has now D with 62% chance of keeping the senate. Basically, people are now betting big on both PA (74%) and AZ(80%) to stay D. NV went back "in play" (R with 57% chances but down from 70% earlier today). And Warnock back with 54% (that one must go to runoff - r...
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:50 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

...Walker just overtook Warnock in real voting.
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:45 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

I enjoy the triggering Thomas causes with his election bet odds. Keep it coming.
Well, I see experts posting that GA GOP-heavy places are yet to report, and, GA has turned red again - Republicans now 58-42 chances (well withing the margin of error, but rising)
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:31 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

R taking Senate has been hovering around 70% throughout most of the day before the polls closed. The expected margin was 53-47. Right now it's only 60-40 (which already is withing the margin of error) and D's are "getting back" PA + AZ - Walker is still "ahead" in GA, but only 51% chance of victory,...
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:18 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

General feeling is the GOP easily takes the House and narrowly takes the Senate, yes?
In last hour or so, Fetterman went from ~30% to 52% on ElectionBettingOdds.com
by Tomas
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:09 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Washington Post just gave Biden the "Bottomless Pinocchio" rating one day before elections:

https://nypost.com/2022/11/07/washingto ... pinocchio/
by Tomas
Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:11 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Elon Musk finally met his match:

by Tomas
Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:24 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: 2022-2023 College Football Thread
Replies: 697
Views: 28999

2022-2023 College Football Thread

COO of Beyond Meat!! :scared: https://www.nwahomepage.com/news/beyond-meat-coo-arrested-for-biting-mans-nose-near-razorback-stadium/ Oh yeah, he was hammered :lol: Aaaand - he got suspended by Beyond Meat: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/beyond-meat-suspends-operating-chief-doug-ramsey-arrest-for-a...
by Tomas
Sat Nov 05, 2022 12:32 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Kyrie Irving just accomplished the full "Barbra Streisand effect." The book that lead to the movie he promoted now No. 1, 2, and 4 on Amazon bestseller list...

https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Boo ... 3377866011
by Tomas
Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

I hope no credible source would spill the beans to Vanity Fair, but if true, this would be a pretty big disappointment for me.

by Tomas
Thu Nov 03, 2022 3:30 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Soccer Discussion
Replies: 11113
Views: 817730

Soccer Discussion

I'll never understand a man who decides to cheat on Shakira.
Are you telling me that this super handsome charismatic dude likes to lay down with the ladies??? I don't buy it!!!



(also, this:


by Tomas
Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:19 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 36841
Views: 1990128

COVID-19

Not sure how many people know Emily Oster. She is quite a big econ star because of her often controversial opinions (low alcohol consumption during pregnancy is OK, high ratio of men to women in China is due to Hepatitis B, etc.) Here is her bio: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Oster Anyway, Ost...
by Tomas
Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:13 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Politics And Current Events
Replies: 231190
Views: 12728611

Politics And Current Events

Halloween celebrity sighting stampede in Seoul now has 120+ dead victims (suffocation, heart stoppage)...